Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #demon

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A #DemonetisationDisaster story I mightve tweeted before. We were on a Neeta bus from Bombay to Pune in Dec 2016. A trip I'd made 100s of times. I had told Rupal how I loved the food vendors who got on the bus in Chembur, Vashi, Lonavala. And bought their product very often.
That time though, with cash in short supply, we had to be selective. In Vashi, dude selling boiled peanuts got on. We bought the peanuts. They were great. But the bus broke down. We had to wait an hour or so until a replacement bus arrived. I started chatting with vendors.
The peanut guy remembered me as the only person on the bus who bought something from him. Most people didn't buy anything. Twas Dec 2016. But Oct 2016, people would have been buying this stuff big time. Not in Dec.

Modi decided to abolish 85% of the nation's currency overnight.
Read 13 tweets
It will soon be the 5 year anniversary of #DeMon. Modi WhatsApp University's greatest messaging triumph is that India is still in denial about what a stupid, selfish, and destructive move that was. People were robbed of their own money for months and they barely protested.
And BTW, I don't say this in an abstract academic sense. I was personally impacted. Had to handle a family emergency situation involving a death across 2 continents and 5 cities, while having to fly to Bombay overnight a few weeks after #DeMon. It was so bizarre and rough!
It's the first time I sang that line truly meaning it - "Aye Dil hai mushkil jeena yahaan". For the first time in my living memory, India had gotten harder than easier. And it was just the start.

After that, every trip, India gets harder than easier.

But that's fascism for you.
Read 14 tweets
Fin 2020, le Dr Angelo Antonio Fierro, coordinateur national de l'école de médecine anthroposophique en Italie, également médecin scolaire d’une école #Steiner, donnait une conférence sur le Covid-19, à la Maison des Arts Anthroposophiques, à Naples : 1/24
Durant ce qui s’apparente à un véritable prêche, il explique ce qu’est le #Covid et comment s’en prémunir.

L’acmé de son discours ? La lecture d’un #mantra de Rudolf Steiner accompagnée de gestes d’#eurythmie. Voici le cœur de son enseignement : 2/24
Selon lui, l’#épidémie (il n’y a pas de pandémie) de Covid-19 est “la maladie du matérialisme unidimentionnel“. Elle ne provient pas d’un virus mais d’une “pensée malade dans laquelle la #médecine a perdu son élan christique et s’est camouflée de manière unilatérale“. 3/24
Read 25 tweets
Sinder’s face looks up at you, their red skin looking even darker in the dim light of your room. Their horns look like jet black slivers of oblivion, and their eyes… Their eyes spark, and spin, pulling you into their warmth. And they speak. Not with their voice. With their mind.
“Oh, my mortal toy… Are you going to be good for me? Are you going to stay still?”

You nod, and then realise your foolishness as they pout, standing, and drawing themselves up to their full height, their shapely body pushed against yours as they look down on you.
“Oh, sweetie. I asked if you were going to stay still. That includes your silly little head, you know? Oh, what’s that? You don’t know how to respond?” They finish the thought you were having. “Simple, think. You have your inner monologue, and now, I have access to it as well…”
Read 8 tweets
When you look at India in the 2 decades before 2014, what you see are govts that prioritized economic development & consequently, our global standing. The only blip on this steady progress was the Gujarat pogrom. The steady accumulation of global heft has now been mostly used up.
Starting from 2014, we not merely took our eyes off the economy, we proactively damaged it through political decisions like #Demon. Then we made a mess of our society for deliberate political polarisation. On top of that, we made wrong bets and took our eyes off the border too.
The physical, social, cultural & trust-related capital that we built up internally and globally ever since the liberalisation of 1991 has well and truly been squandered for petty domestic political wins. Until we realize this, learn our lessons & course-correct, we can't fix it.
Read 5 tweets
Loans given when GDP growth is consistently high will necessarily be based on relatively high growth assumptions. If there’s a sudden dip in growth, much of those loans then turn NPAs. Nobody could have predicted the crazy decision to cancel 86% of money in circulation!!
The crazy decision, fuelled by the desire to starve opposition parties of funds, killed demand, put sand in the supply chains and thus effectively stalled the growth engine. The reason for the job losses, the bank failures and the sputtering economy lies there. And nowhere else.
If #Demon had not killed demand and investment, growth would have continued apace and we wouldn’t be where we are today.
Read 3 tweets
On the eve of the #2ndAnniversary of the #DeMonetisation that we know was a #DemonetisationDisaster I present a Tweet thread on my analysis of just one of the many claims made for it - that it would boost #cashless #digital transactions. It did not do that. Here's my evidence:
The analysis and paper (Draft 1) is here:
on issuu: issuu.com/home/published…
and
on Scribd: scribd.com/document/39252…
But here in this thread I present the main results. Previous analysts used a simplistic approach of doing a before-after comparison. But this is a spurious method
It leads to the Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. See rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,…
My analytical approach was simple. I used the figures from RBI and took the monthly data upto Oct 2016 on each idicator and treated it as a regular time series data. (see robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/fpp/)
Read 18 tweets
Re: The intellectual underpinnings of #DeMonetisation of 8 Nov 2016. A Tweet thread.
Was there a body of theoretical or logical intellectual economic thought that could have influenced #Indian Prime Minister Modi to spring the #wreckingball of #Demon on the Indian #Economy?
1. Nobel Laureate Kenneth Rogoff wrote a book 'The Curse of Cash' . He argued for the phased withdrawal of the USD 100 bill. His arguments were:
1. Hardly anyone in USA ever used or carried the 100 dollar note. Smaller transactions were paid, when they were paid with cash,
With USD 20s or 10s. Transactions of > 100 USD value were settled by cheque, plastic or bank transfers.
2. 40% of all USD 100s are held outside America.
3. The main sector where the 100 dollar bill was used regularly was the trade in guns, drugs and crime. All over the World.
Read 12 tweets
1/ This is voodoo economics. Lets start with high real estate prices being a problem. Are there not other ways of dealing with an asset price bubble here?Rraising Stamp Duty, a national register of real estate, gradually escalating property tax, are some measures...
2/ The trouble is that these steps call for better honest administration that is non-corruptible and fair. But that remains elusive in India. The fact is that while property prices may have come down, the venality has not. There's still a lot of under-the-table deals.
3/ with all the cash sloshing around Indian money has now become the largest source of deals for real estate in Dubai. So the rich guys have found a new place to park their wealth. Thank you for #DeMonetisation.
Read 15 tweets

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