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Macro Daily Co. Profile picture
Macro Daily Co.
@macrodailyco
We highlight key macro trends (charts, data, breaking news, etc.) in financial markets. Pronouns: Money, Alpha, Markets, & Macro | Founder @kylemusserco

Dec 11, 2022, 47 tweets

Wondering what history tells us about @federalreserve šŸ¦ tightening vs. loosening šŸ’µcycles? If so, you're not alone! Here's a thread that breaks down the data šŸ“Š, #interestrates pause/pivot, & more... šŸ§µ/šŸ‘‡šŸ¼

#StockMarket #FederalReserve @LizAnnSonders

1/šŸ§µ @WinfieldSmart @SoberLook @MacrobondF #FederalReserve #interestrates #StockMarket

2/šŸ§µ @WinfieldSmart @BankofAmerica #FederalReserve #interestrates #StockMarket

3/šŸ§µ @NDR_Research @edclissold #FederalReserve #interestrates #StockMarket

4/šŸ§µ @WinfieldSmart @NDR_Research

#FederalReserve #interestrates #StockMarket

5/šŸ§µ @WinfieldSmart @MacrobondF @OxfordEconomics #FederalReserve #interestrates #StockMarket

6/šŸ§µ @WinfieldSmart @thedailyshot @SoberLook #FederalReserve #interestrates #StockMarket

7/šŸ§µ @WinfieldSmart @thedailyshot @SoberLook #FederalReserve #interestrates #StockMarket

8/šŸ§µ @BankofAmerica @business @markets #FederalReserve #interestrates #StockMarket

9/šŸ§µ @M_McDonough #FederalReserve #interestrates #StockMarket

10/šŸ§µ @WinfieldSmart @insidefinance #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

11/šŸ§µ @TimmerFidelity @Fidelity #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #ism $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

12/šŸ§µ @TimmerFidelity @Fidelity #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #ism $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

13/šŸ§µ @TimmerFidelity @Fidelity #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #ism $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

14/šŸ§µ @TimmerFidelity @Fidelity #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #ism $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

15/šŸ§µ @TimmerFidelity @Fidelity #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #ism $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

16/šŸ§µ @TimmerFidelity @Fidelity #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #ism $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

17/šŸ§µ @TimmerFidelity @Fidelity #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #ism $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

18/šŸ§µ @SethCL @DeutscheBank $DS @business @markets #StockMarket #interestrates $SPY $ES $SPX

19/šŸ§µ @WallStJesus @business @markets @TDAmeritrade #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates

20/šŸ§µ @WallStJesus @business @markets @TDAmeritrade #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates

21/šŸ§µ @WallStJesus @SocieteGenerale #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates

22/šŸ§µ @ArnobBiswas18 #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #FOMC #FED

23/šŸ§µ @JeffWeniger #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #FOMC #FED $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

24/šŸ§µ Can the @federalreserve pull of a "soft-landing"? Here's what history tells us about previous tightening cycles...

@BigBullCap @GoldmanSachs #FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #FOMC #FED $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

25/šŸ§µ "Net change in the Fed Funds Target around recessions" via @M_McDonough @markets @business

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #FOMC #FED $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

26/šŸ§µ "The calendar year during which the economy enters a recession has seen the S&P500 rise 5.8%, on average." @SethCL @FactSet @BMO

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #FOMC #FED $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

27/šŸ§µ Per @LanceRoberts, "History suggests there is more downside risk to markets next year if we hit a #recession." @markets @business @SoberLook @thedailyshot

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #FED $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

28/šŸ§µ Looking to the 23' market cycle, here is a @federalreserve pause/pivot prediction to keep in min... h/t @3F_Research

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #FED $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

29/šŸ§µ Keep in mind if the @federalreserve "talks the talk" & hikes further, this could put more pressure on financial markets... h/t @KKR_Co @SethCL

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #FED $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

30/šŸ§µ Is the @federalreserve getting close to their terminal rate? Here is what @GoldmanSachs $GS predicts... šŸ”®šŸ¦

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates #FED $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT

31/šŸ§µ Great chart from @rhemrajani9 that highlights the @federalreserve pivot in #interestrates vs. $SPX...

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #FED $SPY $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT #recession

32/šŸ§µ Always good to take a look back at historical event(s), & in this case the @federalreserve vs. market setup 08' vs. 23' $SPX #inflation #interestrates @ism @SPGlobalPMI etc., is worth watching... h/t @CiovaccoCapital

#FederalReserve #StockMarket

33/šŸ§µ Is the market wrong about expecting a @federalreserve pause/pivot in 23'? h/t @FedGuy12

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $RUT $IWM #recession #GDP

34/šŸ§µ "Rate of Change" in focus as global central banks šŸ¦šŸ“ˆ ramp up #interestrates & QT... h/t @topdowncharts @LanceRoberts @insidefinance

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $RUT $IWM #recession #GDP

35/šŸ§µ "Historically, equities will soften leading into (5-10% correction) and then rally post-pause." šŸ“‰ h/t @3F_Research

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $RUT $IWM #recession #GDP #FOMC $HYG $TLT $DXY

36/šŸ§µ "Following a @federalreserve pause, #bonds have a flawless record." šŸ“ˆ h/t @3F_Research

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $RUT $IWM #recession #GDP #FOMC $HYG $TLT $DXY

37/šŸ§µ Consensus trade(s) are for a @federalreserve "pause" in 23', "pivot" in 24'... h/t @LanceRoberts @business @markets šŸ”®šŸ¦

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $RUT $IWM #recession #GDP #FOMC $HYG $TLT $DXY

38/šŸ§µ "Back in 94/95', the @federalreserve engineered a soft landing by staying ahead of the bond market...TODAY, the fed is behind the curve." āš ļøšŸšØ h/t @WarrenPies @3F_Research

#FederalReserve #StockMarket #interestrates $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM #recession #GDP $HYG $TLT $DXY

39/šŸ§µ Retiring @federalreserve Charles Evans: "Going forward the deceleration in goods-prices #inflation has been important, noteworthy." @WSJ @WSJbusiness @NickTimiraos



(cont'd...)

40/šŸ§µ "Itā€™s the service side and how that behaves that I think is going to be a little more indicative of whether or not policyā€™s adequately restrictive or something more has to be done." @WSJ @WSJbusiness @NickTimiraos

#FederalReserve #interestrates #inflation #CPI

41/šŸ§µ "Most aggressive @federalreserve #interestrates hiking cycle on record, in terms of front-end ROC (Rate of Change)"

šŸ“Šh/t @Mayhem4Markets @FactSet @Bloomberg

#interestrates #inflation #CPI #macroeconomics

42/šŸ§µ "While this would be a notable step down from the rapid pace of monetary policy tightening over the course of 2022, the @fedralreserve will want to avoid signaling any intention of pausing the tightening cycle." @GregDaco

šŸ“Šh/t @EY_Parthenon #interestrates #inflation #CPI

43/šŸ§µ "The Fed might be close to done, but the policy digestion is just getting started." @MichaelKantro ā³šŸ“‰

šŸ“Š @ism #manufacturing New Orders vs. @federalreserve Fed Funds (Inverted)

#ISM #PPI #GDP #inflation #CPI #recession #FederalReserve #interestrates

44/šŸ§µ Remember the 1970's #inflation spike(s)? If you don't, keep in mind that the @federalreserve does... šŸ“‰āš ļøšŸ“ˆ

šŸ“Šh/t @marketdesk @SoberLook @WinfieldSmart

#GDP #inflation #CPI #recession #FederalReserve #interestrate

45/šŸ§µ Is the @federalreserve (lagging) fight against #inflation getting ready to hit šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø (global) #GDP in 23'? Data implying 5% #FederalReserve šŸ¦šŸŽÆ says YES...

šŸ“Šh/t @IMFS_Frankfurt @SrivatsPrakash

#interestrates #macro #CPI #JobsMarket

46/šŸ§µ Keeping in mind @federalreserve #interestrates policy lags, & the initiation of tightening very late in the cycle ā€” here's the latest predictions for #FederalReserve pivot... ā³šŸ“‰

šŸ“Šh/t @LanceRoberts @Bloomberg

#inflation #CPI #StockMarket #bonds $TLT $DXY

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