Thread by @MI_Algos

1/23 It's easy to find bullish and bearish elements in the charts to fit you bias, but being a maxi can be risky. Remember:
Markets ebb and flow
Data constantly changes
Your bias only needs to match the TF you are trading

A 🧵 on the #data influencing the #BTC trend and PA.
#NFA

2/23 Before we dive into the macro for #Bitcoin, let's look at what's happening this week. It's rare to have a Daily MA #GoldenCross and a Weekly MA #DeathCross happening on the same asset.

3/23 The #GoldenCross printed and the #DeathCross between the 200 & 50 WMA's is coming on the next candle. Knowing why we have conflicting signals isn't as critical as knowing how price will react, but if I had to guess, I'd say, short term manipulation.

4/23 Key technical indicators like this trigger #algotrading bots so it's no surprise that buying began when the 50-Day MA crossed above the 200-Day MA. When it happens organically, this unwinding of key Moving Averages is bullish and fits the bull maxi narrative, but...

5/23 Whether you consider the recent #BTC price action organic or not is debatable. From a #DayTrading perspective, at this point, what's important to know is how price tends to move relative to these lagging indicators.
✨Golden =📈
☠️Death =📉

6/23 Trend Precognition's A1 Slope line indicates bullish momentum is weakening in this rally as we approach a #DeathCross on the Weekly chart, but that doesn't mean the rally is dead yet. At the time of this Tweet it's not looking good, but that's why we wait for confirmations.

7/23 Pro #traders have disciplined #riskmanagement strategies and most mitigate some risk by waiting for confirmations. Sure, it does come at the cost of missing absolute tops/bottoms, but it's a more disciplined approach that can protect you from aping into a fakeout...

8/23 this is a perfect segue into the Macro picture for #Bitcoin. We have seen a lot of bullish signs since the @SBF_FTX debacle including consolidation around the .5 Fib retracement from the prior bull market, and the unwinding of key Daily Moving Averages.

9/23 The market started buzzing when #BTC broke the macro trend line, and the fact that it happened at the point it has confluence with the .618 Fib had a lot of people screaming "Bull Market", but for me there are important pieces missing, including a final confirmation.

10/23 Even though I was a skeptic since the rally ceremoniously began on Jan 1, I didn't let that keep me from #DayTrading and #SwingTrading. I mitigated risk by limiting exposure and using order book and order flow data alongside TA. It's not foolproof, but it beats flying blind

11/23 With all of those bullish signs it's easy to understand why sentiment was changing, but for me there are some things that don't fit the bullish case. Historically, an uptrend in #unemployment has marked market bottoms, yet U.S. Unemployment is at 50+ year lows.

12/23 Extended severance packages and a strong labor market may justify why the mass layoffs from #BigTech aren't showing up in unemployment, and this time really might be different, but #JPow is resolved to "soften the labor market" and he'll use more rate hikes if needed.

13/23 Sure, this time might be different and the #FED might be wrong, but those are risky bets we could debate and not resolve before it's too late to capitalize on the PA, so let's look for more actionable alpha in the charts and see what we can learn from history.

14/23 Large concentrations of liquidity act as strong resistance to mark local tops (and bottoms).
Purple Whales have historically had the most influence over #BTC price action and whales selling while price is increasing aka "Whalish Divergence" is an indication of distribution

15/23 We've identified both bullish and bearish characteristics and when you put all of the data points in context of the narrative you still have to decide what's right for your #tradingstrategy and the timeframe you have for it to play out.

16/23 IMO, we still do not have confirmation of a Macro Bull Market breakout for #Bitcoin, or quite frankly, all of #Crypto and #TradFi.

For confirmation I look for full candle bodies above key levels relative to the time frame.

17/23 #Bitcoin has yet to confirm breakout or fakeout. For me that requires a test of the key Weekly Moving Averages which happen to be on their way to a #DeathCross ~$25k.

If Trend Precognition is accurate, the weekly outlook is clear.

18/23 IMO, this is still a Bear Market Rally until we get a confirmed breakout above the key WMAs. A rejection or failure to even retest this week doesn't kill all #hopium. We get new economic data weekly that influences the macro narrative and PA...

19/23 At the time of writing, #BTC is fighting to hold the .618 Fib. If bulls lose the .618, expecting to test support at the Trend Line and consider the 21-Week MA the last stand for this BMR to take another run at $25k. Beyond that...

20/23 If support is lost at the MAs, expecting to test prior lows which would be healthy, and an uptick in unemployment would strengthen the case for starting the bull market from there. If the data is still unclear, I'll wait for bid liquidity and whale accumulation to guide me.

21/23 Until the lows are retested, near range bid liquidity exceeds ask liquidity, unemployment trends up, and/or we see a confirmed breakout, I'll continue to trade with limited exposure to mitigate risk and preserve capital for a potential generational wealth buying opportunity

22/23 I hope you got some value out of this. If so, please comment and tell me how, so I can deliver more of that type of content.

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