I want Macedonia in NATO more than anyone but I urge caution to everyone prematurely cheerleading the recent news about name dispute. There is a long way to go before this is finalized. There are a lot of issues at play here. /1
Domestically, the big issue for Macedonians will be the requirement to change the name in the constitution. Right now the govt does NOT have a majority big enough to do this on their own. /2
The Opposition is (very rightly IMO) raising good questions about what a constitutional name change means for Macedonia’s national sovereignty. This is a serious issue for MANY Macedonians that seems almost completely ignored by outside commentators. /3
For example, agreed scope of use of the new name The Republic of North Macedonia will be for domestic use too. It means that everyone will have to use that name on ID, passport, driving license, etc. Many feel it is an attack on the identity of being a Macedonian. /5
It is in our interest that there be political stability in Macedonia. Any name Macedonia negotiates with Greece must have a popular mandate of support or it risks instability in the country. Macedonians must feel like any agreement preserves their unique identity. /6
Otherwise, failure to get domestic consensus on the agreement could lead to bigger problems and instability in the future. This is the last thing the US, Europe, Macedonia or the Balkans need right now. /7
We all want this ridiculous name dispute resolved but before we blindly start cheerleading any initial agreement we must think about the 2nd and 3rd order effects. /8
Also the Greeks have been known to play games in the past on this issue. In 1993, Macedonia joined the United Nations under the provisional name “the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.” In 1995, Macedonia and Greece agreed to a U.N.-brokered interim accord /9
In in interim accord Athens agreed not to block Macedonia’s integration into international organizations such as NATO so long as it called itself “the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia” until both sides agreed on a mutually acceptable name. /10
Upon completing its Membership Action Plan to join NATO in 2008, Macedonia anticipated an invitation to join the Alliance at the NATO Summit in Bucharest. Yet Greece unilaterally vetoed Macedonia’s accession over the name issue. /11
In December 2011, the International Court of Justice ruled that Greece’s veto was in blatant violation of the 1995 interim accord. The point being that the Greeks have a record of backtracking. /12
So BEFORE anything is put before the Macedonian parliament or the people regarding any name dispute agreement the Greek parliament must FIRST approve it. Otherwise Macedonia could be left with egg on its face again. /13
The easiest & most sensible way to resolve this name dispute would be for Greece to follow the lead of *137* other countries around the world and recognize Macedonia as the Republic of Macedonia. Or at least live up to its obligations under 1995 interim accord. /14
So while progress in the name dispute is welcome we have a long wa to go. Let’s not start counting our chickens before they hatch. /END
