Thread by @tomgarrambone

1/ For the most part, VCs can never admit they are wrong because of the nature of their mandate.

2/ They take money, deploy it, and have to live with those investments pretty much forever. For them to say they were wrong would require them to write off (/write down) positions in their fund and invite skepticism. That is hard to do for any sane human being.

3/ No one is “scamming” anyone here. The structure of this system fundamentally skews their “mental model” (overused buzzword). They don’t have the luxury to question their opinions once they have formulated an investment thesis.

4/ This is pretty similar to generals in war. They can’t really retreat, regroup, and reorganize after a campaign has started. It is far to costly. Even if a part of them knows that the original view / plan was wrong, they have to force that out of their head and push forward.

5/ Silicon Valley has had a great run and the world owes a lot to the early pioneers who risked real money and reputation on moonshot ideas...that have come through.

6/ That success resulted in a flood of money into the “VC space”. The space quickly became overcrowded and every/any half coherent new idea got (and can continue to get) funding.

7/ Unfortunately “crypto everything” got caught in the VC machine. BTC made some people a lot of money so...“the next BTC will surely make us all rich”.

8/ VCs have now likely lost money in crypto (if they mark their books correctly). You should not expect them to change their tune anytime soon. Expect a slight redirection that doesn’t invalidate their previous thesis.

9/ Over the last year we have seen...

Utility tokens -> NFT tokens -> security tokens -> Blockchain 3.0 -> tokens but not Blockchain -> ?? Blockchain 10.0

From the same people.

10/ We are moving way past the point of the crypto space making any sense. But don’t expect anyone to debate the other side. Because not cheerleading the new crypto narrative of the month is “toxic”.