1/ Crypto “traders” that say they are taking a “Warren Buffett fundamental value approach” to investing in the space makes absolutely no sense.
2/ It seems like equity investors nowadays don’t even understand what value investing really is. Value investing is investing in companies that have very strong balance sheets (generally cash and assets that are worth more or close to their ‘enterprise value’).
3/ Crypto (like commodities and currencies) have zero intrinsic / fundamental value. When you get this conceptually low to value...it is fundamentally a confidence game.
4/ If you put money in gold or a global currency, you are making a bet (not an investment) that more people (or at least the same as today) will want it in the future.
5/ BTC is in the same category. You are betting that more people will appreciate that (1) no one controls BTC, (2) anyone can move a weightless BTC across boarders, and (3) anyone can send BTC (close to) instantaneously across the world.
6/Its self evident to HODLers that BTC is valuable because no other asset that has ever existed has had all of these 3 characteristics (incl other cryptos — re #1).
This is true, but for there to be global adoption the rest of the world also needs to appreciate this.
This is true, but for there to be global adoption the rest of the world also needs to appreciate this.
7/ People fundamentally do not like change. Change takes energy. The universe prefers lower energy.
Therefore, the majority of the world will likely not appreciate BTC until they need BTC.
It is unfortunate that this is how human psychology works.
Therefore, the majority of the world will likely not appreciate BTC until they need BTC.
It is unfortunate that this is how human psychology works.
8/ I have many problems with the “utility thesis” of blockchain adoption, but if I had to summarize quickly why it is terribly wrong...I would reiterate the above ^^ statement.
9/ People do not change unless they have to or unless a new alternative is “10x better”
Currently there is nothing in cryto that has proved to be “10x better” except for the unsiezable and 3 ^ characteristics of BTC. Everything else has (unfortunately) played out to be a fad.
Currently there is nothing in cryto that has proved to be “10x better” except for the unsiezable and 3 ^ characteristics of BTC. Everything else has (unfortunately) played out to be a fad.
