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Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
This isn’t going to be a summit where there is huge progress on Brexit - next ten days at home will make more difference - but language btw the leaders always matters
PM being urged at home not least by her former ally Nick Timothy to toughen her positions, unlikely today - but huge issues - migration, Russia, will dominate the agenda
Last summit in March May was hailed for getting cooperation after Salisbury attacks - could feel v different things time
Last 5am thought - in a different era (last year) - this was meant to be the summit when deal was well on the way - we are MILES away from that - with only about six full working weeks left - (prob predictable but November emergency summit anyone?!) - right, coffee...
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More from @bbclaurak see all

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1. Deeply embarassing for govt to be beaten just before Brexit debate gets going again, but does it affect what they will actually have to do if they lose next Tuesday?
2. PM was always likely to have had to make a statement either next Tues night after a defeat or on Weds morning, or at v least at PMQs about what govt was going to do next - several Cabinet ministers suggest that will only be 'we'll have another go' with the same plan
3. PM will now have to present an actual proposal again, even if it's basically a reheat, to MP s within a few days, so it accelerates the time scale even if the issues aren't any different
Read 5 tweets
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1. As it is a big Brexit day there is of course a big process row before it all gets going
2. Dominic Grieve and others want to force Govt to reveal their Brexit plan B within days if they are defeated next week - using an amendment today on the govts plan
3. Because of way the debate traditionally goes if is a huge deal if Speaker allows backbenchera to try to do that at this stage - big precedent to set
Read 4 tweets
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1. Open the notebook back up at the last page before Christmas in Westminster and it doesn't feel like there many new lines that need to be written
2. No 10 trying to eke out more reassurances on time line of backstop from EU, and find a way to make MPs feel they'll have more of a say
3. EU has no intention of major change to legal agreement that's been sweated over - nor do MPs show sign yet of swinging behind May's compromise deal in anything like the number it would take to give her a real shot at getting it thro next week
Read 6 tweets

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1) EU watching to see if their #Brexit deal negotiated with the PM is defeated in parliament tomorrow and if so, by how much
2) EU leaders will invite Theresa May to tell them what’s going on in the U.K, what her next steps will be and what she hopes for from them at their scheduled EU summit on Weds and Thursday this week #Brexit
3) EU v much wants to avoid a no-deal scenario but EU leaders unlikely to provide even written clarifications on controversial #Brexit issues like the backstop to help the PM unless they get a pretty cast iron guarantee that will get the deal through Parliament in a second vote
Read 5 tweets
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1) On talk of Theresa May coming to Brussels to see Jean Claude Juncker this week, the Commission says this will be when concrete progress has been made on content of political declaration on future relationship between EU and U.K.
2) Those negotiations have been going on this weekend and were expected to conclude Tuesday this week. Let’s see
3) EU sources spelling out clearly the PM’s visit would be to finalise the political declaration NOT to re-open the withdrawal deal approved last week by the cabinet
Read 6 tweets
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The #Brexit rant 👇
1) In 2015 Cameron went to EU for reform.
I said, if he returns with something tangible, I'd support his choice on EURef (Remain, turns out).
EU sent him home with his tail between his legs & made me a hardened #Brexit supporter, when I saw them humiliate him.
2) Cameron was a giant amongst mere clowns, but they still disrespected him.
He stands above every one of them, as the leader who steered his nation best through the choppy waters of the 2008 economic crash.
They had no RIGHT to humiliate the man.
3) Ever since then, EU has been arrogant & constantly felt entitled to humliliate our PM.
I've gone from being willing to listen & possibly Remain, to wanting out on whatever terms necessary.
WTO is my benchmark, I'll accept a reasonable deal, but no half-way measures at all.
Read 21 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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My mind keeps returning to this extraordinary and ridiculous #Brexit tweet from Downing Street earlier:


1/12
Commemorative copies of the EU (Withdrawal) Act.

Seriously, commemorative copies of the EU (Withdrawal) Act?

The Brexit equivalent of Charles and Diana commemorative mugs, as one wag said to me on Twitter.

2/12
Ultimately history will judge whether the Withdrawal Act was an important staging post on the route towards Brexit.

Trying to pre-judge the historic-ness of it (or not) just looks crass. Like something from The Thick of It.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

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