Thread by @37paday

1/ Parliament is stuck and needs the help of the people.

2/ Parliament voted to empower the PM to trigger article 50 starting a 2 year clock with no agreed credible plan or safeguards.

Unless the 2 year period is extended or the end date changed by the withdrawal agreement, the UK leaves the EU automatically in March 2019

3/ The EU Withdrawal Act prevents a hard border in Ireland.

The Joint December Report is a political agreement to prevent a hard border in Ireland.

Leaving with no deal means WTO rules would lead to a hard border

4/ At the last election the Government lost its majority because the majority of the public did not vote for it and its “no deal is better than a bad deal”

5/ The Government has recently stated no deal is not is policy and there is no majority for it in Parliament.

It would cause severe harm to the UK and Ireland

6/ There is not currently a majority in Parliament for remaining in the EU.

@eucopresident has recently tweeted we can change our minds. The option to remain appears to be open until the end of March 2019.

7/ The Chequers proposal does not prevent a hard border in Ireland and means a hard Brexit for services.

It is likely to be rejected by the EU and within Parliament there is a sizeable opposition to it

8/ The option most likely to avoid a hard border in Ireland and minimising the economic fallout of leaving is staying in the EEA and a customs union.

But that crosses the PM’s redlines.

9/ There are grave concerns about the integrity and legitimacy of the referendum.

Vote Leave are likely to be held to have broken electoral laws. The involvement of Cabinet Mikisters and MPs in such breaches needs to be investigated.

Leave EU have broken electoral laws.

10/ The Parliamentary debate on the EU referendum bill was clear that breaching spending limits would undermine the vote

11/ Here are some clips to illustrate what was said

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/1007353439720964101?s=21

12/ The ICO has issued fines for misuse of data.

There are ongoing concerns about Russia’s involvement in the referendum

13/ The clock is ticking and no option seems to command a majority.

There is little transparency from Government or Parliament about the trade offs to be made or which might command public support

14/ Immigration attitudes appear to be changing and the result is now 2 years old.

15/ The geopolitical state of the world is becoming worse

16/ And there seems to be no way out for Parliament and the country to move forward in a way that does not harm the country

17/ Parliament needs to ask the public for help because Government has had two years of making a mess and the Opposition are goading then on.

That helps no one

18/ Parliament needs to outline the options available to the public

19/ In light of the above the two most credible options are:

- remain in the EU; or

- stay in the EEA, EU VAT regime and a customs union (plus various EU arrangements such as Euratom and EASA).

20/ Government has had two years to come up with a better option than those two and the Chequers proposal is worse than both but better than no deal.

21/ If there was a better option Government should have identified by now. If there is not, then that is a dereliction of planning by Government.

22/ As there clearly is not such a better option the two I identify need to be put to the people to help Parliament move forward

23/ Parliament represents the people. If Parliament is stuck (especially as a result of being stuck through it own failures) it needs to ask the people for help