People will disagree on the significance of this. But an emerging path to a transition deal + a political declaration about [willingness to negotiate] ambitious/bespoke deal [details tbc, in those later negotiations]
Those who favour CETA (dry), Canada++(+), Chequers, EEA minus, EFTA & EEA models of Brexit (2021) could all go for that, arguing about which of these options do/don't exist for 2021. This shrinks both no deal/WTO & people's vote opposition to the 2019 transition + declaration
If the Irish backstop model can be agreed (with the ambitious/bespoke declaratory language used to reassure that its just a backstop, etc)
Theresa May's plan to keep the show on the road feels quite Harold Wilson/John Major. More staying alive than the vision thing. But a fair achievement in low political cunning if does get across line from wreckage of June 2017. Less clear if she'd be asked to carry on to 2021
"Orderly fudge": prospects & hurdles
There's a vg case against "orderly fudge". Except that foundational premise is 'we shouldn't be starting from here'.
If you exclude any plan that starts, "first, build a time machine" then unlikely to be any politically viable alternative to fudge, within 8-12 weeks (Oct/Nov).
If you exclude any plan that starts, "first, build a time machine" then unlikely to be any politically viable alternative to fudge, within 8-12 weeks (Oct/Nov).
Watch out for how often alternative plans involve some of:
- making a different speech in Oct 2016 re red lines
- doing much more pre-A50, and/or serving it later
- or developing a UK plan much more quickly after sending it
- not holding 2017GE, or getting a different result.
- making a different speech in Oct 2016 re red lines
- doing much more pre-A50, and/or serving it later
- or developing a UK plan much more quickly after sending it
- not holding 2017GE, or getting a different result.
Another sub-set of alternatives involve
- Lab taking a different position over last 24 months & that having changed context (eg GE2017, or public attitudes now).
But I don't see/hear viable alternatives that do not depend on principal actors having acted differently since 2016
- Lab taking a different position over last 24 months & that having changed context (eg GE2017, or public attitudes now).
But I don't see/hear viable alternatives that do not depend on principal actors having acted differently since 2016
This is not to argue that critiques of 2016-18 policy are not legitimate, or do not contain a lot of validity.
If orderly fudge prevails, the core question would become can we use 2019-2020 much more constructively than 2016-19.
A diet of endless fudge becomes unpalatable.
If orderly fudge prevails, the core question would become can we use 2019-2020 much more constructively than 2016-19.
A diet of endless fudge becomes unpalatable.
So please do join the "Campaign for Orderly Fudge".
But do also support the Getting Our Act Together Quickly Afterwards faction.
The Transitional Fudgers, not our Fudge Forever temporary allies. @pmdfoster
But do also support the Getting Our Act Together Quickly Afterwards faction.
The Transitional Fudgers, not our Fudge Forever temporary allies. @pmdfoster
