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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The 2016 presidential election, as you've never seen it before nytimes.com/interactive/20…
In all seriousness, this is an amazing map. You should be sure to look at it next time you're at a desktop monitor. Mobile doesn't do it justice.
Incredible work from @jshkatz, @grammata, @KevinQ, @larrybuch and, of course, the @rarohla data
Also, try 3D mode
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Dems had some decent showings in farm-belty parts of the Midwest (IA, KS, SD, nw OH), but had mediocre to outright bad showings in traditionally Dem, old industrial/union parts of the Midwest. Metro areas pretty bad for GOP across region, of course
Dems came closest to putting it all together in PA. They got their suburban margins. Western Pennsylvania was great for Dems in gov/sen/pa16 house. NE PA was ok for GOP, but not great like IL12/MN8/northern Ohio/rural mich
Also GOP erosion in south-central PA (york/dauphin/lancaster/cumberland) is easy to overlook, but it's part of a long term trend and it could be a real issue the GOP going forward
Read 3 tweets
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I think one of the most important, outstanding questions about this election, with big implications for 2020, is what went wrong for Democrats in Miami-Dade County
Clinton win Miami-Dade by 29; Obama won it by 23; in 2014, an overall bad year for Democrats, Crist won it by 19 with a turnout of just 521k.
At the moment, Nelson and Gillum are up just 21 points with turnout at 800k
In a lot of ways, Democrats did what they needed to do to win Florida. That Pinellas margin should be good enough. The Seminole/Duval wins are really impressive.
Orange/Osceloa were bound to be bad for Dems in a midterm, I'd say.
But I wouldn't say Miami-Dade was inevitable
Read 8 tweets
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Caution to analysts who use exit polls: many big shifts in this year's exit polls are due to methodological changes, not just actual changes among voters
As I've said a million times, the exit polls have long been biased towards having too many well-educated and young voters. This year, they've made changes to try and fix this.
As a result of the methodological change, the college educated share of the electorate in the exit poll is 10 pts lower than 2014. In reality, this was a better educated electorate, but the exit polls were just that biased by this measure before.
Read 6 tweets

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What the fuck just happened today?

⚡️ Day 697: A form of compromise.

whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/2018/12/17/day…
1/ The Russian disinformation and influence campaign during the 2016 presidential election was more far-reaching than originally understood

nytimes.com/2018/12/17/us/…
1a/ The report concludes: "What is clear is that all of the messaging clearly sought to benefit the Republican Party — and specifically Donald Trump."

washingtonpost.com/technology/201…
Read 11 tweets
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‼️F O C U S‼️

📌Trump campaign conspired w/ IS, RU, CH, SA & UAE to win 2016 elex

📌Alfa bank/TT/Spectrum H server -> CA

📌Trump Fam’s massive tax fraud & debt

📌RU troll farm in RU burned down last night

📌Cooperating witnesses

📌Cohen’s trip to Prague story abt to break
‼️F O C U S‼️

Haley Resignation was a distraction.

👉🏼The move allowed the president to maintain control of the news cycle.

The Mueller Inv Is Bigger Than Rosenstein

Even if he got fired, a replacement dead set on shutting down the inv wd find it nearly impossible to pull off.
‼️F O C U S‼️

.Interpol officer found dead in Yekaterinburg

“Based on the speculation I've seen on TV, Trump will fire Jeff Sessions, who will be replaced by Lindsey Graham, who will be replaced by Nikki Haley, who will be replaced by Ivanka Trump.”
Read 54 tweets
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“The F.B.I. believes Page has been the subject of targeted recruitment by the Russian government....undermine and influence the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election in violation of U.S. criminal law." nytimes.com/2018/07/21/us/…
"The FBI believes that the Russian Government efforts are being coordinated with Page and perhaps other individuals associated with Candidate #1 campaign"
It's clear that the FBI believed that Page met secretly with Sechin and Divyekin.
Read 4 tweets
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Why did the Mueller terms of reference only target the Trump campaign and Russia? Just days later CIA director John Brennan admitted under oath to Congress that other countries attempted election influence. Brennan resigned in Jan 2017 so knew before. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A proper terms of reference would have referred to "election links and/or coordination influence" without naming a country or campaign. The terms of reference protected at least one other country, according to Brennan's admission--and possibly the Hillary Clinton's campaign.
There is evidence that Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and Israel were engaged in influence operations and possibly a number of other states. Which country is being protected by Rosenstein? Why is that country, or the campaign it is connected to, above the law?
Read 3 tweets
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Time to look back at 2017 - this is a thread of tweets I sent that generated the most engagement
Each dot is a US adult's guess about the location of North Korea
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
TRUMP EFFECT: Change in % confident in US president from Obama to Trump
Sweden 🔻83 points
Germany 🔻75
S Korea 🔻71
France 🔻70
Spain 🔻68
Canada 🔻61
UK 🔻57
Australia 🔻55
Brazil 🔻49
Mexico 🔻44

Russia 🔺42 points
pewglobal.org/2017/06/26/u-s…
Read 51 tweets
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In 10 minutes the Senate committee chaired by Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) will discuss the president's authority to order a nuclear strike. foreign.senate.gov/hearings/autho…
From a report prepared for Congress in 1975 on "Authority to Order the Use of Nuclear Weapons." dropbox.com/s/5sqce3cqkkfw… via @NuclearAnthro
Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) taking his seat. For 30 years he's been introducing legislation to curb spending on nuclear weapons. c-span.org/video/?437317-…
Read 26 tweets

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