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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Dems had some decent showings in farm-belty parts of the Midwest (IA, KS, SD, nw OH), but had mediocre to outright bad showings in traditionally Dem, old industrial/union parts of the Midwest. Metro areas pretty bad for GOP across region, of course
Dems came closest to putting it all together in PA. They got their suburban margins. Western Pennsylvania was great for Dems in gov/sen/pa16 house. NE PA was ok for GOP, but not great like IL12/MN8/northern Ohio/rural mich
Also GOP erosion in south-central PA (york/dauphin/lancaster/cumberland) is easy to overlook, but it's part of a long term trend and it could be a real issue the GOP going forward
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
We got a glimpse of conditions that yield a viable third party bid in 1992, when Perot was tied or even ahead in polls ahead of the DNC.
Here, CBS/NYT in 6/92: B32, P30, C24
Bush app: 34%
Clinton fav/unfav: 16/40
Perot fav/unfav: 26/20
By all measures, status quo less conducive
(I would also argue that Schultz is not as well positioned to take advantage of whatever opening exists as Perot was, but that's a separate question)
Of course, we haven't had many vigorous third party bids.
But it makes sense to me that you'd want to see *both* Trump approval and likely Dem nominee favorability under at least 35, and probably lower, before there was a real opening
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
I'm so upset right now. Infuriating game
Forget the Q4 refs. The offensive play calling is outrageous. Wilson is the best player on the field and he wasn't even given a chance to win this game
I really can't remember a more upsetting game. I really don't get upset easily, but "shuffle" on the playbook might have been better offensive playcalling
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
The missing NC-9 vote nytimes.com/2018/12/07/ups…
A minor note here--this data will differ somewhat from most other analysis in that I've removed all of the absentee voters who wound up voting by other means (in person on election day or in early voting) or who appear to have change counties since they applied
Interestingly, some (perhaps all, didn't go through) voters who submitted affidavits about people picking up their absentee ballots wound up voting by other means (which makes sense, since clearly they realized something was up)
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Allez, un thread pour évoquer le fiasco du métro de Noisy-le-Grand. Tu vas voir Twitter, c'est une histoire vraiment fascinante #metro
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