Thread by @Nate_Cohn

I think one of the most important, outstanding questions about this election, with big implications for 2020, is what went wrong for Democrats in Miami-Dade County

Clinton win Miami-Dade by 29; Obama won it by 23; in 2014, an overall bad year for Democrats, Crist won it by 19 with a turnout of just 521k.
At the moment, Nelson and Gillum are up just 21 points with turnout at 800k

In a lot of ways, Democrats did what they needed to do to win Florida. That Pinellas margin should be good enough. The Seminole/Duval wins are really impressive.
Orange/Osceloa were bound to be bad for Dems in a midterm, I'd say.
But I wouldn't say Miami-Dade was inevitable

It's possible that when we get the voter file back that we'll conclude that the Democratic turnout here was weak, despite the high overall turnout.
It is also possible that we'll conclude that the GOP is looking better among Cuban voters, and maybe Fla. Hispanics more generally

There was quite a bit of polling this cycle showing Trump/Fla. GOP doing better among Florida Hispanics than expected. Our own polls in FL-26/FL-27 showed Trump approval looking strong, compared to 2016, and basically nailed the congressional race

Anyway, we'll need to get back the voter file data to untangle the turnout question. If it's not turnout, it's a real 2020 challenge for Dems. Florida was only so close bc of Dem strength in Miami-Dade. If it's going to be tough for Dems to match Clinton, FL will be tougher

In our polls:
FL26, Clinton+16: Trump -5, Mucarsel-Powell+1 (result, DMP+2)
FL27, Clinton+20: Trump -11, Shalala+7 (result, Shalala+6)

Top me, this is pretty scary for Democrats. If you assume it's similar in CD25, you could be talking about a 10 pt shift among 10% of the state electorate. And that happens to roughly line up with the GOP overperformance, compared to Trump, in Miami-Dade