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Brendan Bernstein @BMBernstein
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Price declines are necessary & beneficial.A CC can only win with resolute buyers /holders. Dips test conviction and ingrain indispensable dip buying behavior

If the raison d'aitre of a CC is gains, it'll fail when price inevitably falls.The change in top10 since 2013 shows this
Monetary assets have extremely strong reflexivity. The lower they go in mcap, the less useful they are. Holders and dip buyers are necessary to reverse this process

Assets without a strong ideological base disappear. There's not enough conviction to step in and buy the dip
BTCers may seem crazy. And it's b/c they are!

It’s near unfathomable to think some 1s and 0s made on the corner of the internet can take down govt backed currencies

Yet buyers continue to come back

This is why the top 10 changes so dramatically, but BTC remains on top
Every time there is a crash, bitcoin gets even stronger.

Dominance in terms of market cap % is a terrible metric. What matters is the asset that is #1. And BTC hasn’t had 1 day without being the top asset by both market cap and liquidity.
BTC % mcap has gone down but its fended off a coordinated attack from bcash and 100s of alts. The “flippening” with Ethereum never happened despite the massive amounts of funding behind it

BTC % “dominance” has trended down but its dominance today is orders of magnitude higher
BTC maximalism is descriptive

It describes why the best money is the largest and the most liquid. Why BTC has and will continue to remain the #1 asset. And the positive feedback loops that will continue to ingrain this dynamic.

Crypto crashes strengthen this case.
Other alts dissolve without a price boom. BTC is the only asset that has shown that it doesn’t need a bull market to continue to exist.

The top 10 today will look as ridiculous as the one from 2013.
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Deficits will increase until there are negative ramifications. But that will be too late

People lose faith in the USD and the only recourse to weakness will be to jack rates up

In 2022 100% of our budget will already be going to existing liabilities

We cant afford higher rates
It’s easy to see this spiraling out of control

Other countries stop buying treasuries —> we jack up rates further -> our interest expenses increase and we need to issue more debt —> more people stop buying —> higher rates...etc
Given our existing liabilities — both entitlements + debt — we’re on a surefire path to massive tax hikes that all go to pay *existing* entitlements

This is a recipe for instability.

The working class is going to be funding the excesses of the last 50 years
Read 3 tweets
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Cramer in 2000, days before the collapse:

"throw out all of the matrices and formulas that existed before the Web....they can't make money for you anymore, and that is all that matters. If we use any of what Graham and Dodd teach us, we wouldn't have a dime under management.”
This is similar to "cryptonetwork valuation thinking

Null hypothesis should be that the status quo is unchanged: assets are worth discounted future cash flows

Errors with tech valuation weren't because of a lack of tools but bc of errors predicting cash flow and new biz models
The tacit assumption is that crypto has created an entirely new paradigm -- for both asset valuation and fundraising

But my base case assumption is that other than which ONE ASSET wins as the primary money, the only way others can accrue value will be through cash flow
Read 4 tweets
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i'm long web 3 if it means decentralizing trusted 3rd parties

but IMO every attempt on a b-chain is not close to what it'll ultimately look like

progress in crypto is just inertia --Iterating on existing b-chains just for innovations sake

nobody questioning the premise itself
what if the right model to create a censorship resistant web isn't on a blockchain with a native token?

most goals can be accomplished with existing software. Do people forget the whole p2p wave?

governance of OSS already exists and so do distributed protocols (DHTs, IPFS)
feels like people are wedded to the token model from a sunk cost fallacy, and all the investment $$ of web 3.0 is still going into very similar ideas

but my bet is that FB isn't going to be disrupted by a social network on a blockchain that ICOs....
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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1- Desiderata (Latin: "desired things") is a 1927 poem by American writer Max Ehrmann; though he did not publish it at the time, he did permit its circulation. In 1942, he gave permission to Dr Charles Moore, a U.S. Army psychiatrist, to distribute copies of the poem to soldiers.
2- The poem is much like a Faith map. It provides wisdom and reminders of our purpose and the challenges we face. It is a reminder for the Warrior of the duality of living and protecting.

Duty and service demand #conviction, #righteousness and #ruthlessness.

The poem follows…
3-
 DESIDERATA
Go placidly amid the noise and haste,
and remember what peace there may be in silence.
As far as possible without surrender
be on good terms with all persons.
Speak your truth quietly and clearly;
and listen to others,
even the dull and the ignorant;
Read 10 tweets
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(1) Under the below tweet there's discussion of what Trump's plan to deploy the military to the border will mean in practice. Yes, it will work, by providing a physical barrier, & deterrence. But actual law enforcement like making arrests, using weapons, can only be done by LEOs.
(2) This is super-important bc I need y'all to remain calm for the next 3 weeks at least. Election season is always crazy but this one is "off the charts." On every issue there's not 2 main competing narratives, but 3-4. Here's my take on the border issue:
(3) I'm not yet an American but you are, & for the good of the USA & the world, I beg you to #VoteGOP no matter what, & to be a force for #GOPunity not division. Trump needs you to "elect more Republicans." He's been saying it daily for about a year now.
Read 16 tweets
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I am going to post links here to the most popular resources I have been asked for, because some people have said that they feel uncomfortable asking, but also because the number of requests is a bit much.
If there's something specific you'd like me to add, then let me know :)
Here is a link to my 'so you think you've finished display'. 17 cross curricular generic activities which you can put up as a display, print as extension cards, or insert slides into your powerpoints. drive.google.com/file/d/1aWu3un…
Here is the link to a range of different activities to promote speaking and listening in the classroom.

drive.google.com/file/d/1ajfbY-…
Read 34 tweets
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It was a Saturday Shoe Polishing Day this late morning. Started at 10am.
First, always make sure the shoe's verandah are brushed and blackened. Keep black, black. Brown, brown. Clear, neutral. It's essential.
Then you layer the leather with shoe wax as thinly as possible. In circular motion until it fades to a blur. Repeat at least 5 more time. Allow it to form a haze, and then take a lint free clothes to wipe it off. My left Florsheim Brogue in light brown uses neutral to keep color
Read 20 tweets
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Necessary & 💯 article on white supremacist "colorblind" ideology. Thing is I, like so many 80s/Reagan era kids, was taught this was a high ideal when, in reality, it's a powerfully white supremacist one that drowns out the lived realities of Black folks.
bostonreview.net/race-politics/…
Reagan twisted MLK's ideals, using the ideal of being "color blind" to drown out the complexities and reality of King's message, and arguing that a MLK holiday was too expensive & “we could have an awful lot of holidays if we start down that road.”
Pressured further Reagan caved but wrote a R Gov of NH that it was:

"based 'on an image [of King], not reality.' Reagan’s support for the federal King holiday...had nothing to do with his personal views of the civil rights leader."

R needed to silence his critics & keep votes.
Read 19 tweets
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Ten times more BJP workers have been killed than Muslims ever since Modi came to power. We command the narrative as well as dead bodies. ✌️
One more 😍
Yet another 😍
Read 54 tweets

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