One thing I think we may discover about November is that Latino turnout isn't surging the way a lot of people expect it to. Similar trends in Valadao's and Hurd's districts.
It's educated whites that are going to wipe out the GOP in 2018, not minorities.
It's educated whites that are going to wipe out the GOP in 2018, not minorities.
I'm getting a lot of "LOL what GOP wipeout?" comments in the responses here. Normally I ignore that, but let's assume it's not blind partisanship; it's worth explaining something fairly clear to election analysts but perhaps not so much to folks who don't obsess over this stuff.
First, when I say that a GOP wipeout is in the cards for November, I am referring obviously to the House and not the Senate. In the Senate I expect the GOP to lose AZ/NV but to make it back in MO and ND, and possibly IN and FL as well (MT, OH and WV are agonizing misses...).
Second, when I say that "educated whites" are going to be the nemesis of the GOP in 2018, I specifically mean suburban white voters with college degrees. This has been the bedrock of GOP House control from 1994 onward, and OH-12 is proof added to proof that they are disgusted.
You literally cannot turn around without hitting an ominous bellwether: look at WA state's top-two primary, which closely matches their November results (the GOP actually usually does better): three GOP-held seats are seriously threatened (WA-8 is probably gone).
Yes. And this is why I think it's important to be alert to the possibility that the Democratic vote surge/GOP vote decline is going to be coming from certain demographics, not just across-the-board.
Look at the flaming-hot locus of anti-Trumpism: it's not Latinos, many of whom are actually working and benefiting from this economy, and think Trump is an ass but are low-propensity voters who have better things to worry about. It's the outraged educated white voters.
These suburban whites (many of whom are typically GOP voters) were already wobbly in 2016, as the breakdown by CD and even precinct-level makes abundantly clear, and they are going to tumble over in 2018.
Here's the thing: you just described me as well. I didn't vote for Trump in 2016 & won't in 2020 short of some truly insane meteor-strike event (would have to be ID4/SMOD-level). But I'll pull (R) downballot for sure. Always have. We're comparatively rare.
