I spent a big chunk of the last few years reliving the Clinton impeachment drama in 1998 for my book and want to say something about the parallels between then and now, which are considerable -- with one potentially big difference
The parallels are glaring. Trump has just been implicated in a crime to conceal a politically damaging affair. At almost this exact same moment in 1998, Bill Clinton was also accused of a crime, perjury, to conceal a politically damaging affair with Monica Lewinsky.
Obviously, not all details align – Trump's would be a crime aimed at preventing him from losing an election; Clinton’s was a crime aimed at preventing the public from knowing something that might cause him to lose his presidency. Some see a big, bright distinction there; I don’t
So what saved Clinton in 1998? Yes, it was that his party stuck with him and Republicans couldn’t get a 2/3 Senate vote to convict. But why did Democrats stick with him in the first place? The answer there boils down to: public opinion.
The story of ’98 was of the political world waiting for a public backlash against Clinton that never came – not in January when the Lewinsky story broke; August when Clinton admitted it; or September when Starr formally accused him of crimes: 
Even then, there was Dem apprehension that they were missing something – a hidden disgust with Clinton that might cost their party in the November midterm. When the GOP-led House voted to open an impeachment inquiry in early 10/98, 31 Dems voted with them
clerk.house.gov/evs/1998/roll4…
clerk.house.gov/evs/1998/roll4…
But most Dems by then settled on a different message: They condemned Clinton’s behavior, called for a censure, and argued that impeachment was wild overreach – the opposition party using the findings of a prosecutor on a witch hunt to try to overturn the results of an election
The public sided with Democrats. By Election Day, Clinton’s approval rating hit nearly 70% and after predictions months earlier that they would face a Watergate-style bloodbath, Dems actually *gained* seats – almost unheard of for the WH party in a midterm
That basically settled it. Gingrich was ousted as Speaker and the GOP went ahead with impeachment anyway, but only 5 Dems in the House and 0 in the Senate went along – and a larger number of Republicans ended up siding against it
clerk.house.gov/evs/1998/roll5…
senate.gov/legislative/LI…
clerk.house.gov/evs/1998/roll5…
senate.gov/legislative/LI…
That’s the difference I see – Clinton began the saga at 60% approval in Gallup and his support *increased* as it all played out, culminating in a shocking elections. At every point Dems had instincts to bolt, the message they got was: You don't need to.
By contrast, Trump right now is at 42% in Gallup. We will see what happens, obviously -- if there's any erosion with R voters now, if nervous R's look toward November and bolt, or if there's even some kind of rally-around effect like there was with Clinton. But...
...if November '18 produces what November '98 didn't -- a wave against the president's party -- the politics might then look different than they did at any point in the 1998 saga.
(I think I did this wrong - my punishment for doing an annoying thread. Anyway the rest of it should be here:
