Dire predictions with Hurricane #Florence look increasingly likely for the Carolinas/Virginia. Several points need to be made as Monday dawns.
1) This will be a LARGE storm. HWRF model Simulated IR satellite is an esitmate, but shows a storm as large as North Carolina.
1) This will be a LARGE storm. HWRF model Simulated IR satellite is an esitmate, but shows a storm as large as North Carolina.
2) @NHC_Atlantic official forecast is 150 mph winds (near Category 5) offshore. #Florence will likely be Category 4 near landfall with 140 mph winds. Landfall zone may still shift, but most models show a devastating wind field near Wilmington/Topsail/Jacksonville, NC Thursday.
3) Historical comparisons w/ Hugo (wind/surge damage) & Harvey (flood damage) look more likely with each new model run. #Florence will likely stall inland or on NC coast for 3-4 days. 20" to 30"+ rainfall totals look likely. This would produce devastating floods.
4) It's critical not to focus just on the storm center w/ #Florence. Wind/rain fields with this storm will be huge. @NWSMoreheadCity already reports #OBX overwash well in advance of the storm. Entire #OBX will see days of pounding surf and surge even well north of the center.
5) Bottom line: It's prudent for anyone in NC/VA who is at risk for storm surge/wind damage/flooding to take immediate action Monday. Evacuation will be the best option for many. All the best meteorological data suggests this will be a historic storm of Hugo/Harvey proportions.
And remember the precise track of #Florence can and may still change! Stay up on the latest advisories from @NHC_Atlantic.
