1. So much ado about the so-called Kavanaugh effect. In brief, it’s fear among Democrats that the fight over the nominee is going to drive out Republicans next month, limiting their possible gains, especially in the Senate. Let me give it to you straight.
2. That’s baloney.
3. If the Republicans were to hold a vote after the midterms, all of the above might be true. The Republican base, which cares about the courts more than the Democratic base does, would in that scenario have an incentive to come out in force.
4. After he’s confirmed? Not so much. As @MattGlassman312 said:
5. Then why all the talk about Kavanaugh effect on the elections? One, pundits like to talk about it. Two, Democrats fear it. Three, it served the GOP’s goal of putting maximum pressure on holdouts in the party, specifically Jeff Flake, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.
6. Four, in hyping the effect, the Republicans can credibly say the Democrats shouldn’t push back so hard, because, you know, the midterms are coming.
7. There will be a Kavanaugh effect, I believe, but it won’t be what everyone is saying it is. Confirming him won’t drive out GOP voters. They will be satiated. But Kavanaugh’s threat to liberal legal precedents will drive out Democrats.
8. They won’t forget, because his confirmation is part of a larger context in which voters are already mobilized. If the liberal backlash is a fire, the Republicans will pour gas on it.
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