1) I'm going to come right out and say it. Fuck it. Cards on the table.
@AmyMcGrathKY is the Beto O'Rourke of Kentucky, in that she never had a chance of beating @barrforcongress, but a few favorable early polls gave her the APPEARANCE that she would.
@AmyMcGrathKY is the Beto O'Rourke of Kentucky, in that she never had a chance of beating @barrforcongress, but a few favorable early polls gave her the APPEARANCE that she would.
2) Right now, @NateSilver538 over at 538 is giving Barr a 9 point lead. This is going to be blown out of the water. I'll dig into why 538's model may have shit the bed in a moment. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-e…
3) I would like first to refer to ballotpedia to give you a taste of the previous election cycles. In 2016 and 2014, Andy Barr TROUNCED his opponents by 20%. ballotpedia.org/Kentucky%27s_6…
4) His closest 2 elections were in 2010, when he narrowly lost to the then 3 term incumbent Ben Chandler by .3%, and then in 2012 when he beat the at that point 4 term incumbent Ben Chandler by 5%. Since then, it hasn't been CLOSE.
5) So, let's go back to 538's model for a second. Notice the 2nd poll in the model, the DCCC Targeting team poll on May 2nd. That's right, he used a Democrat poll in his model. See Garin-Hart-Yang polls that dominate the earliest polls as well? Democrat internal pollster.
6) Abrams, Bredesen are others that Garin-Hart-Yang have done work for showing a 'winnable' race. google.com/search?rlz=1C1…
7) BUT THAT'S NOT THE WORST BIT! OHHHHH FUCKING NO!!!!!!
8) You see Fabrizio Lee and Associates? The Republican internal pollster showing the 51-38?
Well, here's the citation. Read it. congressionalleadershipfund.org/memo-ky-06-pol…
Well, here's the citation. Read it. congressionalleadershipfund.org/memo-ky-06-pol…
9) They weren't citing their own poll, @NateSilver538, you fucking IDIOT. They were referring to the prior DCCC targeting team poll, which was revealed in JUNE and DATED from May!
10) "After the positive press attention and a primary that was entirely based on her biography, McGrath led Barr 51% to 38% in early June." HMMM. THAT SOUNDS REALLY CLOSE TO THE 52-37. I WONDER WHY THAT IS. dccc.org/case-rep-andy-… Here's the DCCC poll being revealed in late May.
11) In their press release, they mistook the date and the exact numbers, and suddenly, 538 thinks there are 2 FUCKING POLLS showing a 13 point lead for McGrath, and then they weigh it extra because they thought the SECOND poll was from a GOP internal pollster!
12) Ever wonder WHY no polls since then showed anything CLOSE to those results? 538 mistook a BLATANT FUCKING OUTLIER based a blitz of Beta O'Dork style propaganda in favor of McGrath for 2 DIFFERENT POLLS, and has WARPED the view of the KY-6 race SINCE THEN.
13) Quite simply, the model's fucked, and when liberals scream BLOODY FUCKING MURDER at McGrath losing by 20% when every pollster labeled it a tossup due in part to a SEVERELY FLAWED EARLY ANALYSIS on 538's part, well, they had it coming.
14) The facts on the ground are simple.
Lexington is one blue college town surrounded by a sea of red counties.
There is an even split of Barr and McGrath signs in the CITY ITSELF.
Economically things have been GOOD in Lexington. Its been growing and doing WELL.
Lexington is one blue college town surrounded by a sea of red counties.
There is an even split of Barr and McGrath signs in the CITY ITSELF.
Economically things have been GOOD in Lexington. Its been growing and doing WELL.
15) Ben Chandler's dominance during the obama years came to a SWIFT end as soon as KY-6 was redistricted in 2011, and that was AFTER his 2010 near-miss from Andy Barr. Since then, this has been a RED DISTRICT, no matter how much Democrats want to fool themselves otherwise.
16) You want further proof?
Compare Trump's Richmond rally to Biden and McGrath's rally the day before. Like comparing apples to shriveled dehydrated prunes.
Compare Trump's Richmond rally to Biden and McGrath's rally the day before. Like comparing apples to shriveled dehydrated prunes.
17) But, hey, we're a swing state, because fuck the past 2 elections, totally flukes, we should TOTALLY count a DCCC internal poll TWICE and just assume the district is going blue based on that.
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