The BCH upgrade, and the accompanying hashwar by CoinGeek, are today. Here are some thoughts and predictions.
There are lots of super interesting and clever attacks one can launch against PoW chains.
We are going to see none of these.
We are going to see none of these.
The CoinGeek folks lack the technical chops to launch them. Their expertise lies in social manipulation, and running things from the command line.
We will see the dumbest possible attacks: monopoly mining and tx flooding. We might see empty block attacks.
I called out Craig Wright's fraud way before the world knew about him. He has been obsessed with attacking my work ever since. His website background was our selfish mining paper.
Over the years, I've developed a good sense for the "Craig touch." He brings the IQ down of any group he is in. That's why there isn't a single smart person behind BSV, the CoinGeek coin. That's why the attacks are going to be super dumb.
Nevertheless, monopoly mining is a real attack. It *can* work. It needs to be coupled with insane rhetoric.
In the game of chicken, where people drive towards each other, your best strategy is to throw out your steering wheel.
That's why you need insane commitment rhetoric.
In the game of chicken, where people drive towards each other, your best strategy is to throw out your steering wheel.
That's why you need insane commitment rhetoric.
We have been seeing that, and expect the laughable villain rhetoric to peak today. It'll be hilarious. I always imagine Gargamel speaking it when someone forwards me a snippet.
Keep in mind that Craig has no honor and nothing to lose. His commitments and words mean nothing.
Keep in mind that Craig has no honor and nothing to lose. His commitments and words mean nothing.
So this is a particularly easy game for him to play. It's like throwing the steering wheel out, and keeping five extra ones in the back seat. He has no credibility, so the miners are not going to take his threat of losing Calvin's money on a hash war seriously.
Any attack is waged with finite resources, and whoever runs out of them first wins. Monopoly mining is a simple game.
On one side, we have a self-proclaimed gambling-rich guy, on the other, we have a collection of people and companies that want to build a new currency. Of these, Bitmain's balance sheet had been made public, and they have very, very deep pockets.
So, first order analysis already answers the question of how this will play out. Deeper pockets, with a strong economic commitment to the coin, will win.
Now, recall CoinGeek's forte: they will make lots of hollow noise. Expect threats of lawsuits against Bitmain and others.
Now, recall CoinGeek's forte: they will make lots of hollow noise. Expect threats of lawsuits against Bitmain and others.
CoinGeek is counting on a set of meek Chinese miners folding in to their nonsensical demands. They will find deeper economic commitment, coupled with a good dev team. Expect a more complex series of defenses than they expected.
Don't expect to transact in BCH until this current spate of stupidity is over, when Calvin gets tired of losing money and strikes an agreement. Or if the BCH supporters fall apart for some unfathomable reason.
There is no reason for the latter to happen, but BCH folks historically can't coordinate.
This is just a game of spending money on hashpower in the short term. BCH should have no difficulty doing that.
But then again, they did let CSW into their midst, so who knows.
This is just a game of spending money on hashpower in the short term. BCH should have no difficulty doing that.
But then again, they did let CSW into their midst, so who knows.
Overall, the hashwar will probably fizzle out at the technical level, while raging on social media.
In the long term, strong communities with a unique technical vision win. BSV doesn't have this, so it's a clear loser. The question is whether BCH has it. Both can lose.
In the long term, strong communities with a unique technical vision win. BSV doesn't have this, so it's a clear loser. The question is whether BCH has it. Both can lose.
In the end, we will all learn something about the costs of attacking PoW coins, and what their true security guarantees are.
Already, we can see that the amount of energy spent on miners does NOT translate into equivalent security. Miners shift and move.
Already, we can see that the amount of energy spent on miners does NOT translate into equivalent security. Miners shift and move.
How to enjoy the 🍿:
I should have explained monopoly mining:
