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To many players of fantasy football #FPL it feels like the game is getting harder. They’re right. It’s due to the *paradox of skill* as explored by @mjmauboussin. Over the past 10yrs the number of players in the game is up from 1.95m to 5.91m. 1/8
With that demand comes an increased supply of information via Twitter, websites & podcasts. Via those resources skill has been democratised. Given that performance is a function of skill & luck, if the variance of skill goes down, then more of the result will stem from luck. 2/8 
The pattern is the same in other competitive pursuits like baseball and the stock market as can be seen in @mjmauboussin's charts here. 3/8
Another way to see this is through the gap between the great and the good. It’s getting narrower, just as it is in the marathon. 4/8
Fortunately it’s not all luck, yet. There’s still enough skill out there to drive some persistent performance. Based on my research, in any given season a top decile performer has a 58% likelihood of being a top decile performer again the next season. 5/8
It’s also true that in the @FFScout Hall of Fame, there are 333 managers that have ranked in the top decile in every single one of the past 10 seasons. Without skill, that would be way outside the realms of probability. 6/8
In conclusion if I could put a number on it, my research indicates that the game is broadly two-thirds skill and one-third luck. But the paradox of skill is tilting it further towards luck. 7/8
So good luck to all players as the game restarts again this week after the international break. @FFScout_Joe @NickTriggerlips @WGTA_FPL @FFScout_Mark @JEgersdorff @FPLGeneral @mathsafe_fpl @MarchSimon @BenCrellin @drbenmcnair. 8/8
