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TradingTrooper @TradingTrooper
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Some excerpts from When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management... on the likelihood of certain market moves
LTCM: selling straddles, what could go wrong?
LTCM: when all their positions are 'loosing', even 'Tutes like to load up on da' cheapies cc: @BagholderQuotes
LTCM: when the math geniuses underlying math is literally 1000% wrong
LTCM: having 60,000 different positions probably seemed like a good idea until everything began to unravel
LTCM: Last but not least, Goldman doing what Goldman does - God's financial work
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Store of value properties is what gives crypto networks value, utility is overrated for the purposes of investment appreciation - utility is a red herring for investors.

In the case of Bitcoin, its real utility is really just a bucket, it's a bucket to store value.
Make no mistake that the majority of asset value in the world is derived from players parking value into an asset for storage. Whether that be a house, a lump of gold, or even, to a lesser extent, stocks.
To hit this home in crypto... the ETH rise in value was NOT from utility. It wasn't from users buying ETH to get Gas to fuel smart contracts. It was ICO token treasuries parking their funds in ETH as a store of value.
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An Absence of Euphoria.

The following tweets are just some musings I have about prospects of the Government as we come into the election season. It has been five years of @narendramodi already and I must say I am blessed to be living in his time. My observations follow thus:+
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THREAD:

1/ The EPSC - the European Commission's @ECThinkTank - has launched a new report on key trends shaping climate & energy policy in the short- to medium-term (2025-2030). The publication is aimed at laying the groundwork for upcoming discussions on stronger implementation.
2/ The publication identifies 10 key trends in total, which I will try to summarize here in condensed form. However, I encourage you to also take a closer look at the publication and follow @EPSC @phil_offenberg @AndouraSami if you are interested in digging deeper.
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Global warming has already reached 1°C above preindustrial levels and is increasing at approximately 0.2°C per decade leading to weather-related disasters (€290 bn in losses '17).
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I would have been happy to let the @bloggingheads episode between @robinhanson and I stand. But since Robin's decided to jump back in as well, I'll make a few remarks.
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Bitcoin tax questions I ask myself:

1/ I bought Bitcoin for $1k in April. Now it’s $10k. Did I just make $9,000?

I think you're forgetting something. There's only two things certain in life: death and...
2/ Taxes...what?! Cryptocurrency is beyond the government's control, man!

Government won’t shut down Bitcoin, but US citizens still owe tax on worldwide income. Tax evasion, in extreme cases, leads to imprisonment.
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\1 Visualization tweet storm

Historically, the U.S. stock market has had long-term positive real returns for most of its history (regardless of valuation). These long-term returns tend to converge:
\2 However, this market behavior is characterized by quick drops and slow recoveries.
\3 But, every crash is different, so don't try to market time. It is very hard to do.
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