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Judea Pearl @yudapearl
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1/3 Readers ask: Why is intervention (Rung-2) different from counterfactual (Rung-3)? Doesn't intervening negate some aspects of the observed world?
Ans. Interventions change but do not contradict the observed world, because the world before and after the intervention entails ...
2/3 ... time-distinct variables. In contrast, "Had I been dead" contradicts known
facts. For a recent discussion, see <tinyurl.com/y93megrx>
Remark: Both Harvard's #causalinference group and Rubin's potential outcome framework do not distinguish Rung-2 from Rung-3. (cont.)
3/3 This, I believe, is a culturally rooted resistance that will be rectified in the future. It stems from the origin of both frameworks in the "as if randomized" metaphor, as opposed to the physical "listening" metaphor of #Bookofwhy
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1/n
 Dear readers and followers. This is a brief end-of-year report that I would like to share as 2019 is about to enter our space. I am very gratified with the warm and wide acceptance of #Bookofwhy and its key messages: the inevitability of causal
modeling and the logic ...
2/n
 ... the logic imposed by the Ladder of Causation. The need to marry ML and CI has become a popular banner even in communities that are strangers to CI. The introductions of free courses on graphical models at @HarvardEpi and Microsoft
(DoWhy) [there may be others] promise to.
3/n
 ...promise to end decades of confusion and bewilderment that were perpetuated by sluggish educational and editorial establishments. Some disagreements do remain, among them the debate over manipulability ucla.in/2EpxcNU
and the need for a three-level hierarchy.
Read 5 tweets
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1/3
 I am not searching for traces of one work or another. My question was whether you believe @HarvardEcon students are prepared for the challenges of modern #causalinfernce. e.g., Can they determine conditional exogeneity or testable implications in a given economic model? C....
2/3
 Can they compute counterfactuals in a given systems of economic equations?
More pointedly, do they have the tools to solve simple problems like those listed in Sec. 3.2 of ucla.in/2mhxKdO, which Epi students learn as basic alpha-bet? Or will they stay behind? (con.
3/3
 Many economists on this Twitter look up to @HarvardEcon for leadership in the reformation of econometric education into the age of modernity, among them seasoned educators who are expressing an urgent need for such reformation. It's time for a bold step forward. #Bookofwhy
Read 3 tweets
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1/3
 In the past two days readers had a chance to carefully examine ucla.in/2wpolWr (Appendix) and verify that health scientists communicate in terms of states of variables, as opposed to manipulations of variables. They talk about agents and substances being ``present''
2/3
 or ``absent'', being at high concentration or low concentration, smaller particles or larger particles; they talk about variables ``enabling,''``disabling,'' ``promoting,''``leading to'' ``contributing to,'' etc. Branding these causal relationships "hopelessly ill-defined",
3/3
 "extrascientific" or "White Magic" does not do justice to the bulk of scientific discourse. What for? Just because PO started with RCT perceived as the mother of all knowledge? #Bookofwhy #causalinference #EpiTweeter
Read 3 tweets

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Alright, so last week I promised to run a thread of all of the @UK_Patterson Security and Intelligence comps questions that I've asked since arriving here in 2005.
Turns out that was a lie; I only have the list since 2007. But nevertheless, let's proceed. These questions are kind of a running history of US national security policy since 2007, mediated by my own personal obsessions and intellectual tics.
It's important to understand that the question is only a prompt for the student to tell me what s/he knows. Students can answer in whatever way they feel appropriate, and are evaluated (in oral defense) on the strength of that answer.
Read 184 tweets
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We have all seen people act the fool at airports, cinemas, in traffic, at hospitals etc. We have all heard them say that nonsensical, infantile, conceited irrational phrase "do you know who I am" when they are being corrected for doing the wrong things.
We have seen people who get up during a flight to open the overhead lockers while the seatbelt signs were on attack air hostesses for telling them to respect themselves and abide by the rules and regulations.
We have seen fellow Nigerians at the toll gate drive all the way to the end with no respect for queues and order, and expect to be treated as kings. We have seen them talk down to security at malls whose job is to check everyone coming in irrespective of who they are.
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Okay, let's jump in with part 2 of my #aspects in #astrology mega thread. Yesterday I spoke about aspects being visual relationships between planets, and that visual connection is what makes them "work," conceptually. We don't actually know what the mechanism is.
The mechanism by which astrology works is NOT SOMETHING I AM TALKING ABOUT TODAY PLEASE & THANK, I'm much more interested in digging into the ways in which the glances that the planets ping back and forth to one another in the heavens manifest.
Remember from everything I said last night: each planet casts seven glances, or aspects. A planet can observe anything where one of its glances falls in the Zodiac, as well as the sign it is in at the time. So each planet can behold eight spots.
Read 32 tweets
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Readers ask me sometimes how I know so much about alters. I dismiss this question as a nice compliment. But last week, a missing piece was discovered. My body began a process of unraveling. I fasted as I traveled. My body grew slow as a turtle...
jtrue.com/blog/married-a…
Wine is a "turned" grape. For so many alters, the drop on the tongue triggers the switch.
Did you guys catch my column on marrying an alter? It explains so much about what we currently label as narcissism and sociopathy. This was a deep pull from my personal life. Give it a listen and share it so my mojo won't be wasted. See top of thread. #sra #alter #narcissism
Read 3 tweets
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1/ Contrarianism is key to exceptional returns and legacy companies. But it's mistaken for weak converse statements. The crowd overuses it.

Avoid lazy opposites, search for contrarian truths which yield actionable ideas with power.
2/ Contrarians understand this. Be contrarian. Be right.@reidhoffman

The Myth: Contrarians are perpetual cynics that disagree for the sake of disagreement. Crowd.

The Reality: Contrarians are long-term independent thinkers who are humble and courageous. Heroes.
3/ Contrarians understand public opinion is inevitable in society and markets. Shaped by beliefs and desire, public opinion follows events, rather than lead it. Public opinions are at the whims of greed, fear, envy, impulsivity, pride, and hope.
Read 21 tweets
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Time to take my twitter beyond pedantic comments on @C_Garthwaite and live tweet the nber Health meetings to all 198 of my followers, including several humans
First up is Ami Ko presenting work with Hanming Fang on rating areas in the ACA —
The ACA imposes many “community rating provisions” — you have to charge everyone the same price with the exception of age, smoking status and geography
Read 122 tweets

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