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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/3
 I am not searching for traces of one work or another. My question was whether you believe @HarvardEcon students are prepared for the challenges of modern #causalinfernce. e.g., Can they determine conditional exogeneity or testable implications in a given economic model? C....
2/3
 Can they compute counterfactuals in a given systems of economic equations?
More pointedly, do they have the tools to solve simple problems like those listed in Sec. 3.2 of ucla.in/2mhxKdO, which Epi students learn as basic alpha-bet? Or will they stay behind? (con.
3/3
 Many economists on this Twitter look up to @HarvardEcon for leadership in the reformation of econometric education into the age of modernity, among them seasoned educators who are expressing an urgent need for such reformation. It's time for a bold step forward. #Bookofwhy
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/3
 Your composition formula is right ONLY if we assume no M--Y confounding.
But in general, even if M is the only mediator between X and Y, the formula does not hold. This is in fact a beautiful example how modern #causalinference deconstructs strongly held intuitions #Bookofwhy
2/3
 Intuition says: We have two RCT studies, one gives P(Y|do(M)), the second gives P(M|do(X)), So, if we have a new study with X--->M--->Y the ONLY directed path from X to Y, we should forget confounding and chain the two causal effects together to get P(Y|do(X)). WRONG! We do
3/3
 need to worry about confounding, but only Y--M, not X--M. It is also beautiful because it is not easy to show that the intuition is wrong, so I bet most traditional researchers would go wrong here. Funny, some researchers still refuse to believe in the revolution #Bookofwhy
Read 3 tweets
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/3
 I am surprised and delighted that economists found interest in my paper on non-manipulable variables. Why delighted? Because economists deal with such variables all the time. Why surprised? Because they do not have an expression comparable to E[Y|do(X=x)].(cont.) #Bookofwhy
3/3
 and SUTVA forbids race, gender and even "minimum wage" to enter the privileged company of "well-defined treatments". So what do economists do? Same as other stuck people. They speak SUTVA in writing and use commonsense in practice. I hope my paper helps them speak straight.
2/3
 Even economists who drifted to Rubin's camp are stuck. True, they can write Q=E[Y(x)] and pretend that it is the same as E[Y|do(x)]. But is it? Y(x) comes from Rubin's PO framework where X=x is a name of a manipulable treatment that has sworn allegiance to SUTVA. (cont.)
Read 3 tweets
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/3
 Indeed #Bookofwhy gives Neyman an honorary mention as a pioneer of the revolution. However, his counterfactual subscripts are not events but indices of treatments. Thus they cannot be related to nonexperimental data. (See Rubin's Fisher Lecture) The first formal connection
2/3
 to data was made by Sewal Wright in 1920, and that is why a whole chapter is devoted to him. Rubin and Rosenbaum also made this connection in 1983, through the consistency rule Y=x Y_1+ (1-x)Y_0 and, of course, the PO framework is part of the revolution. But, let us examine
3/3
 ....examine what replaces P in the PO framework, so we can articulate and answer causal questions. The revolution is defined by the result of this examination. Why resist the title "revolution"?. Can't your students do today ten times more than anyone could two decades ago?
Read 3 tweets

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Adepoju Olalekan
@Dgreatlekan
This is a daily thread on some 31 ways to keep our use of English simple, short and meaningful. We will expound 1 way per day for the next 31 days.

Questions can be raised here or via DM.
Pls RT & stay tuned.

#KissPrinciple
Way 01- Choose the easy path!
Actually, anything worth doing is potentially hard. Simple sentences, however, are less problematic because of their simple structures. Familiarize yourself with and use them often.

#KissPrinciple
The simple sentence could contain both obligatory (VERB) and optional (SUBJECT, OBJECT or COMPLEMENT) elements. These are very important aspects!

#KissPrinciple
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