Thread by @redxbt

1/ On the anticipation of swing points; getting front ran or getting run over

2/ Front running is when an anticipated level gets traded right before reaching it, leaving basically everyone with no fills.

Most of the time it's a very obvious level, namely round numbers and historical levels.

3/ Getting run over is when an anticipated level is completely "ignored" and price trades right through it, into the next level.

I say "ignored" because price reacts to it, but extremely lightly and not as expected.

4/ These events bring great cognitive dissonance. Getting front run makes you complacent, get run over makes you angry.

Both will cost you a lot of money!

4.1/ Think about how many sit there waiting for their perfect round number.
No fill. No worries, sit back, relax, wait a bit more. Poof. Trend reversed, no fill!

4.2/ Think about how many thought they had caught the top/bottom, only to get stopped in a few minutes.

Get angry, this can't be happening, fade it! Again, and again... until you hit a monster drawdown.

5/ There's nothing wrong with getting front ran, but if you're telling yourself that level has to touch before a move, something's wrong!

There's nothing wrong with getting run over, but if you're furiously fading price and getting stopped out multiple times, something's wrong!

End thread/

Experience is the only antidote to avoid these problems. After a while you'll be able to identify complacency and anger at important levels, and decide to protect capital, or get fooled by yourself!