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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Repeating this point, but the tendency of presidents to recover after bad midterms doesn't necessarily happen automatically—it may happen because it prompts them to pivot. Not clear if there's any recovery if there's no pivot, and Trump isn't pivoting. wapo.st/2ThGLlA
Reagan and Obama (among others) also benefited from improving economies after poor midterms, something that probably won't work in Trump's favor because the economy is already pretty good—but with some signs that it's getting worse—so the risks are to the downside.
Finally, it's worth reiterating that Trump's numbers *right now* are pretty bad, with a -12 net approval rating (-11 among polls of RV/LV).

So SOMETHING has to change or he'll have to get quite lucky to win re-election (i.e. face off against another super-unpopular opponent).
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Hi folks, here's my first big deep dive into 2020!!
The 5 Key Constituencies Of The 2020 Democratic Primary
53eig.ht/2D3l8jF
Here are the constituencies. They are NOT mutually exclusive, a voter can be in more than one of these groups at once:
1. Party Loyalists
2. The Left
3. Millennials & Friends
4. Black voters
5. Hispanic voters (sometimes along with Asian voters)
The key idea is that a candidate needs to build a majority coalition that encompasses at least 3 of these 5 groups. Which candidate might be best equipped to do that? We'll cover that next week, but this chart provides some hints.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
There are lots of charismatic Democrats but the problem is that all 37 of them are running for president.
You could have had some Democratic members from border states/districts, I guess. It's a *little* bit weird to outsource the rebuttal though, when Pelosi/Schumer are the key players in the negotiation. Would look like Democrats were trying to duck Pelosi & Schumer's unpopularity.
The other problem is that there are various things Trump could have done to make news (e.g. declare a national emergency, put some sort of offer on the table), in which case you'd definitely want to hear from leadership and not backbenchers.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Also, a lot of primary campaigns don't feature major differences among the candidates on policy. Clinton and Obama had very little to divide them in 2008, for example.
Elections are mostly *not* about wonky arguments over policy. Or to put it another way, you could have exhaustive coverage of the candidates' policy positions and still have plenty of time left over for the horse-racier aspects of the campaign.
So while I'm a huge fan of some of the people making this critique (e.g. @jayrosen_nyu and @Sulliview), I find "cover elections thru policy, not the horse race" to be a bit of a red herring. The argument should really be about whether there's too much *election* coverage, period.
Read 3 tweets

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Moola is on #TeamPelosi 👠
@MooPersists
Before Trump there was a negative influx on the SOUTHERN BORDER with more migration into Mexico than entering America.
—We hadn’t quit the UN’s Human Rights Council
—The US gov’t hadn’t orphaned 1000’s of children
—and Felipe and Jakelin were alive.

Let’s just get rid of Trump.
Before Trump, asylum seekers crossing the SOUTHERN BORDER weren’t criminalized or denied their rightful hearings we provided pursuant to US & international laws.
—Most migrants granted asylum returned to their homeland when it was safe to return.
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degrading & dehumanizing migrants approaching the SOUTHERN BORDER as “invaders” or a caravan of “diseased,” “vermin,” and “terrorists” to excite their base and turn-out voters in #midterms.

Presidents were decent.
We were proud.
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🇬🇧Renton🔱I⭐Stand⭐With⭐Flynn⭐🐸✝️🐇🔴🇶🔫🥓🐻⚡☺️
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1) gab.com has been no-platformed as a result of
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Hate crimes and political violence are Wrong.Period.

My prayers go out to the families of the victims.
2) I view this an opportunistic attack by big tech/ MSM to take out it's
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Censorship never works.

It's the Internet eventually people who value
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I think everyone should have a right to speak freely
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townhall.com/tipsheet/laure…
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
Deeply anti-Warren piece that is highly critical & dismissive of her. It totally hand waves Sanders through.Warren has beaten Sanders in several polls,so is this a check on her momentum?

Think Elizabeth Warren And Bernie Sanders Are The Same? She Doesn’t. buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/eli…
As with coverage of Hillary Clinton in 2016, the verbiage here is to pit actual work, which Warren does, against Sanders' oeuvre of rhetorical flourish.

Warren is a worker bee, Sanders a gadfly.The false dichotomy of "socialism" when Sanders is not a true socialist feels forced.
I'm not sure what the function of this piece was other than to undermine the enthusiasm some are feeling about Warren and the work--in the Senate work--that she's been doing. Asserting that her battling Trump directly is meaningless is a bad take.
Also, it's not 2020.
#Midterms!
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Justice Will Prevail +🔺
@LP083061
#Midterms #RedWaveRising2018 #QAnon plz RT

“We are now within 90 days of the most important midterm election of our lifetime and we need to fight with everything we have to create a red wave this November.”
“It's important that we start with the historical picture in mind. On average, the party that wins the White House loses 15 House Seats in the midterm election.

That's our starting point. Anything less than 15 lost seats is a victory and defies the average.”
“What we do in the next 90 days truly matters and can make a difference.

What will we do today to move us toward victory?”
#RedWave2018 #RedWaveRising2018
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Daniel Dale
@ddale8
Trump notes that he once faced CPAC skepticism about his conservatism. "I think now we've proved that I'm a conservative," he says to cheers.
"By the way, what a nice picture that is. I'd love to watch that guy speak," Trump says, pointing at a big screen showing himself.

Then he turns around and pats his hair.

"I try like hell to hide that bald spot, folks," he says. "We're hangin' in."
A protester! A U-S-A chant breaks out, and boos. Trump calls him "very obnoxious" and says the Fake News will make him the headline.
Read 51 tweets
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Joshua Benton
@jbenton
I think this take is wrong and here are some words about it! (1/x) nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New forms of media are often additive, not replacements! All the evidence we have says that the arrival of smartphones has, on net, meant we consume MORE total media than we used to. They don't murder a typographer every time there's a Snapchat update.
When new forms of media *are* subtractive, there's no particular reason to think text will be what goes away. The piece talks about the rise of podcasts — which are great, but which replace *radio* and are usually consumed in contexts where reading is hard (driving, doing dishes)
Read 12 tweets

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