1/ My final estimates for Q4 deliveries:
Model 3: 58,500
Model S/X: 28,000
Model 3: 58,500
Model S/X: 28,000
2/ Most current estimates for Model 3 are between 55k and 65k, although there are plenty of outliers. VIN registrations in Q4 are currently pacing about ~14k higher, but there are significant gaps in reported VINs between some ranges (Bloomberg has cumulative production at ~61k).
3/ For most of the quarter, I’ve been more bearish than most bulls, but I’ve become more optimistic in recent weeks. Here are a few data points (primarily anecdotal) driving this view …
4/ First, there's *some* amt of inventory, but it seems modest. I know many people who've ordered recently and were matched to existing inventory, however, it’s rarely local. Even in large hubs like Seattle, the cars are just leaving Fremont or mid-shipment to a nearby state.
5/ I’ve tried to buy a Model 3 from a store with hundreds parked outside. Of those, there were only 2-3 AWD configs available for immediate purchase. The vast majority were already spoken for. Pictures of the same lot <7 days later show significant turnover.
6/ Second, delivery center activity remains high. @AlphaHatInc tracks visits to DCs using foot traffic data, & has used this to accurately predict deliveries in prior Qs. In their latest report on 11/29 (data as of 11/18), DC activity was comparable to Q3. blog.alphahat.com/tesla-q4-half-…
7/ Since then, DC activity has accelerated and their model is now tracking *higher* than Q3 at ~61k deliveries. This estimate is based on data through 12/16, so there is still some uncertainty involved. Especially considering how insane the final two weeks of Q3 were.
8/ My own experience at Fremont DC (and other locations) showed lots of activity and a large push in the final weeks. Deliveries are continuing until 9-10pm. Employees have been asked to work holidays, etc. It may not be the case all over the U.S., but interesting nonetheless.
