1/ How to build a solid Gameweek 1 FPL team for the stat inclined.
Fundamentals:
•£100m budget
•15 players (11P (play), 4B (bench))
•1 Captain per week (double points)
•2 GK (1P/1B)
•5 DEF (3-5P/0-2B)
•5 MID (2-5P/0-3B)
•3 FWD (1-3P/0-2B)
•3 players per team max
#megafpl
Fundamentals:
•£100m budget
•15 players (11P (play), 4B (bench))
•1 Captain per week (double points)
•2 GK (1P/1B)
•5 DEF (3-5P/0-2B)
•5 MID (2-5P/0-3B)
•3 FWD (1-3P/0-2B)
•3 players per team max
#megafpl
2/ Excluding captain, the most value (pts/price) positions are (highest) GK --> DEF --> MID --> FWD. The highest *value* team you can create maximises spending in these high value areas. This is ≠ (not equal) to the ‘best’ team you can make. It is a good starting point. #megafpl
3/ Last season [top 5k / 0.1% finish] I had De Gea, an expensive 5-man defence, and 1 high priced striker. It ‘worked’ but was *inflexible* (injuries / benching). This season I made a few changes due to an excellent article on “VORP” or Value Over Replacement Player. #megafpl
4/ We’ll come back to VORP. Value isn’t best as you win the FPL game by getting the most *points*. Pure value setups leave you with £20m+ in the bank. So, to solve we use value as a base and then make some suboptimal *value* picks in order to optimise for *points* picks. #megafpl
5/ To maximise points our first pick should be the likely highest points scorer in the game. They will be our auto-captain in most games (~75% of the time /v all but top 5), and we want to double those points. If you captain them, it essentially halves their total price. #megafpl
6/ With perfect pricing in FPL, this would always be the most expensive option in the game, (a good starting point). For 2018/2019 this was Salah [£13m]. Salah was part *value* in my GW1 team last year [£9m]. He was the first name in my 15 this season for pure *points*. #megafpl
7/ Some players bring in another high-priced player to alternate the captaincy with. I think this is a *mistake* in a GTO (game theory optimal; all players perfectly priced) setup. James Egersdorff [#1 FFS HOF] has a rule of thumb of aiming for 50pts/GW from your £100m. #megafpl
8/ This is 1pt/£2m. Without captaincy, this is too hard to average as a £10m+ player. A perfect rotation pair is also impossible (they have to play each other). In a GTO game you would gain more from a higher quantity of viable mid-priced options to fixture pick from. #megafpl
9/ With captain in place, we could go back to 2/ and upgrade our remaining players, prioritising the best *value* positions. This would have us spending the full £100m, playing 5-4-1 with a cheap playing striker and a minimum priced bench for the most money on the pitch. #megafpl
10/ But FPL is not *static* (fixtures / transfers / injuries / benching’s), nor *infinite* (# of clubs / # players at x price) so there is more work to be done. VORP is useful when choosing between players but it’s *biggest* jump is in the binary between playing and not. #megafpl
11/ To shorten for twitter character limits, it’s worth having the cheapest *playing* bench for this jump. For points, injury cover and transfer flexibility in the future. The value difference in a 2-point, playing £4.5m compared to a non-playing £4.0m is ~4pts/£1m. #megafpl
12/ I suggest having 2 playing subs (from DEF/MID/FWD). The second GK and third outfield slot are usually unneeded backups (they wouldn’t play enough weeks to justify, despite the value when they do). This will cost ~£1.5m on top of the base £17m bench [4+4+4.5+4.5] #megafpl
13/ Our template is now [£100m – ~£13m (captain) - £18.5m (bench) = £68.5m] for the remaining 10 outfield players (1 GK, 3-5 DEF, 2-5 MID, 1-3 FWD (formation dependent)). Your optimisation for *points* should then dictate this formation beyond the min # in each position #megafpl
14/ Optimising for points beyond GTO means looking at the players team, the fixtures and OOP (out of position) potential (MID playing as FWD [Salah, Mane, Richarlison etc]). This is where watching the pre-season games and knowing the teams *can* make a difference. #megafpl
15/ *Spoilers* This watching will just tell you to get the *best* players from the top clubs. E.g. This season I started with 3 x MCI, 3 x LIV & 3 x TOT. They were, stats wise, the 3 best teams last year and I thought this would continue #megafpl 
16/ Final thoughts. The above posts re: strategy, xG etc is part of the fun of FPL for me (I stream chess, that’s how nerdy I am). Above everything though, please just play so that *you* have fun. It’s just a game. Games are only worth playing when they are fun. #megafpl
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