1/ I *am* concerned about not having Hazard. His ownership is huge, and he has great fixtures. My normal checks also undervalue him as he has pens & is a bonus magnet. Understat has his NPxG90 + xA90 at 0.75 this season. This is great. But you can’t have them all. 
2/ I don’t believe in coverage / hedging. You should be looking to maximise points week to week only. Yes, if Hazard does well I do badly, but if he doesn’t, I go up. This is not the one-way street that it’s made out to be.
3/ With a game of 6m players I want to *maximise* variance (based on good principles) not *minimise* it as to me the jump between top 5k and 10k is worth *more* than the difference between 10k and 15k. I want to *win* the poker tournament, not just make the money.
4/ I went for Pogba after watching his last game. His stats in that game specifically were much better given his presence in the box for his shots. If he repeats those runs, he’ll have many more big hauls. Compared to Hazard, he also has pens, so I considered that a wash.
5/ I have been early (Doherty, Sane, Fraser, Wilson) and late (Sterling, Hazard earlier) to players this season and I want to make sure I time the Pogba move *correctly*. With his value increasing faster than Hazard’s and both having good fixtures this made most sense to *me*.
6/ This doesn’t mean this is *correct* but it’s a best guess case. I would be captaining whoever I brought in and I believe Hazard’s output can be negatively impacted by Morata playing (who I expect to play given Giroud & Pedro injuries). Pogba is on a high.
7/ [Newcastle fan]. Newcastle are bad. They are ~= Southampton in defence. They have just had more luck. 10 goals more luck. I don’t believe we should use this as an indicator for future results.
8/ GW22 isn’t until the 12/01. If Pogba does well again, his value is likely to increase *more* than Hazard’s. Hazard’s ownership % and cost are both higher. This means there are fewer potential buyers and his price is out of reach of a higher % of them.
9/ We still have 7 GW21 games along with the cup games before GW22. I don’t want to make an early transfer for this GW as all players have to navigate through with good form and injury free. Getting the lower priced player allows me more flexibility with this (more MIB).
10/ So let’s look at this again a few days later. The ‘real’ points are not important, but to save questions, both Pogba and Hazard scored 3. My suggestions were: [1] Pogba will rise more in price, [2] his underlying stats will be >= (greater than or equal to) Hazards #megafpl
11/ [1], I bought Pogba 30/12 @ £8.1m. 5 days later he’s £8.4m [+0.3]. Hazard is still £11.1m (+£0). You can argue that I can only ‘cash in’ £0.1m on Pogba currently, but this misses the point. I have saved myself the full £0.3 on the option of having both players. #megafpl
12/ [2], I said in 6/ that Morata could reduce Hazards stats that I stated in 1/ was at 0.75 NPxG90 + xA90. *Disclaimer: a sample size this small does need a huge asterisk by it*, but this did prove to be the case (not for the first time this season) [0.41 v Pogba 0.61] #megafpl
13/ Concluding, reviewing your decisions is important (in life and games), so that you don’t repeat errors and feel confident going forwards. I plan to repeat this with future questions I have too. In this case I feel I chose correctly and I’m happy with my decision #megafpl.
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