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Moshe Hoffman
@Moshe_Hoffman
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Another illustrative example of what motivated reasoning looks like in political discourse.
(“Conservatives” didn’t hate on AOC for dancing. One conservative did. But headline “conservatives hate on AOC for dancing” is still *plausibly* true. And makes republicans look worse.)
(But why not criticize republicans for the *actual* bad things they think and say? Not for the *plausibly* bad things? It’s not like there’s nothing legit to criticize...)
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More from @Moshe_Hoffman see all

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Moshe Hoffman
@Moshe_Hoffman
Hmm interesting question.

My take on cause of/lesson of replicability/p-hacking issues:

Classic motivated reasoning

People have strong incentive to 1) cheat, but to do so in ways that are 2) culturally acceptable and 2) plausibly deniable. AND to 3) avoid self-reflection

No?
(Thus replicability issue doesn’t say *much* about the individual (albeit is clearly a moral hazard component and individual differences to susceptibility therein), but about problems w/ institutional incentives+human nature.)
(And moral hazard component is quite hard to detect/penalize. Partly because so much is unobservable. But also even when confident the researcher was iffy, are huge incentives not to call out if not sure/others don’t agree. Hence why plausible deniability so useful.)
Read 5 tweets
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Moshe Hoffman
@Moshe_Hoffman
Good summary of why our political situation is so dire.
(Tbh I am surprised so much of this is in plane sight, and half the country is nevertheless so blasé bout it.

How come Nixon went down for what appears to be far less?
Control of Congress? Trump’s powerful base? Mix w/ dark money? Trump’s savvy playing of media/public? Presence of Fox/right wing disinformation?

Thoughts?)
Read 3 tweets
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Moshe Hoffman
@Moshe_Hoffman
Hmm, reading the wiki article Tage links to below (in reference to recent work by @datingdecisions).

Which provides a cost benefit analysis of relationships.

Except the costs are characterized there in terms of pleasure and pain. “Psychic utility,” if you will.

1/3
Whereas a functional/evolutionary approach to relationships (what is done in my literature) would do something similar

*But* where costs/benefits are described not in terms of how we feel but *material* considerations

Like help, financial security, mating opportunities...

2/3
Which makes me wonder:

To what extent do these systems of “accounting” relate to each other?

What insights can we get from one notion of costs and benefits that one misses from the other?

Not sure. Thoughts?

3/3
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Tom G Stark❌
@TomStark913
Conservatives and conservatism.

These terms are always tossed around but too few know much of the history or figures envolved.
This thread address the history of the movement, highlights lesser and better known individuals and seminal modern writings all should be aware of.
The modern American conservative movement most trace back to the 1964 Goldwater campaign. Given this did bring conservatism back to the forefront of national consciousness, the movement got its traction post WWII.
Roots of American conservatism stretch back to the birth of our nation and our expressed founding values. Natural law. The first 5 presidents were of the founding generation. Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe.
Read 57 tweets
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Shrikanth Krishnamachary
@shrikanth_krish
One of the riddles in political discourse is to define the "C" word

What exactly is Conservatism?

For Liberalism it is possible to chart out a messy history, starting with Magna Carta and ending with Me-Too movement,

Conservatism doesn't lend itself to narratives
It doesn't even lend itself to a straightforward definition

A very simplistic way of defining a political conservative is to suggest that Conservatives are the ones who "resist" change. That's the definition that "liberals" like to foist upon conservatives
But that is a very problematic definition.

Going by that Stalinists in post-Khruschev Russia and Maoists in Deng Xiaoping's China would be the "conservatives" making the word practically meaningless.
Read 29 tweets
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mei
@yeonkims
what’s wrong with secretary kim?

taekook au where jungkook always teases about firing his all too perfect secretary, taehyung but was bewildered when the other actually hands him a resignation letter.
Jungkook stared at the enclosed envelope sitting on his desk, his lips pursed tightly and his arms crossed over his chest as he let his chair carry the weight of his body. His dress shoes clicked on the floor as he tapped his foot, the sharp tap echoing through the office.
The frustration builds up each time he listens to the clock hand ticking away the seconds.

It has been a day. The realization hits him hard and suddenly Jungkook stopped tapping his feet on the ground.

It has been a whole entire day since Secretary Kim quit.
Read 219 tweets
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Taylor Owen
@taylor_owen
A few comments on the debate over fake twitter handles of public figures, on the rise in Canada (thread):
1. There is a difference between parody and deception. The line actually isn’t all that grey - you know each when you see them. And the intent and impact of each are different.
2. Yes, this is not a new problem, all political stripes have done it. And, what we are seeing now is different.
Read 24 tweets
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Christopher "Streetwalkin' Cheetah" Federico
@ChrisPolPsych
Finally got around to reading two interesting pieces on symmetries & asymmetries in motivated cognition as a function of political preferences. (1/x)
First is this piece by Ditto (@BizarroPolitix) et al, which finds (via meta-analysis) that motivated reasoning is largely symmetric across the left/right dimension (and/or other political-preference dimensions (2/x): researchgate.net/publication/31…
Second is this response from Baron and @JohnJost1, which provides an empirical and normative critique of the previous (3/x): sas.upenn.edu/~baron/papers/…
Read 18 tweets
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Authoritarian Warning Survey
@authwarning
One of the biggest looming threats to our democracy is not that a foreign actor will broadly change votes or registrations in the 2018 elections, but that Americans will use this to doubt election results they don't want to believe /1 nbcnews.com/politics/elect…
Suppose we discover around Nov. 6 that a foreign power breached election systems somehow somewhere in America; many, many people are going to wonder if we caught every case of interference & conspiracists are of course going to run wild /2
If there's a wave Dem election, GOP voters will wonder if it was legit; if Dems underperform, many Dem voters will wonder. Motivated reasoning is a really powerful drug, esp in heated, partisan times. Even one case of foreign vote-switching could unleash a powder keg. /3
Read 9 tweets

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