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Moshe Hoffman
@Moshe_Hoffman
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Good summary of why our political situation is so dire.
(Tbh I am surprised so much of this is in plane sight, and half the country is nevertheless so blasé bout it.

How come Nixon went down for what appears to be far less?
Control of Congress? Trump’s powerful base? Mix w/ dark money? Trump’s savvy playing of media/public? Presence of Fox/right wing disinformation?

Thoughts?)
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More from @Moshe_Hoffman see all

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Moshe Hoffman
@Moshe_Hoffman
Yeah, this is a good example of the insight of the game theory concept of “subgame perfection.”

Which teaches us:

Dems couldn’t give Trump wall $, even if requires burning more $ than he is demanding.

B/c if give $, T would be incentivized to make more such demands in future.
(Same insight explains why Hatfields and McCoy’s or Israel And Palestine can’t just let bygones be bygones, and are stuck in cycles of violence, even if both may wish to forgive and forget. Also explains why England had to fight expensive & useless war defending Falkland Islands)
(And why punishing in the ultimatum game makes complete sense, if you think about ultimatum game as tapping into our sense of retributive justice, which evolved in contexts of repeated interactions to be consistent with subgame perfection.)
Read 3 tweets
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Moshe Hoffman
@Moshe_Hoffman
Vestigial traits.

Some of the most straightforward evidence for human evolution.

How can anyone see this & deny human evolution? So weird.

But also, how clever of naturalists (Darwin?) to have spotted these & known to present as irrefutable evidence. So clever.
(Note to social scientists:

This evidence, once again, isn’t experimental. And yet it’s more irrefutable than any experimental evidence for evolution I can think of.

How come? What makes it so compelling? When is it better to look for evidence like this vs experiment?)
(Historians of science/naturalists: Anyone know how Darwin, or other naturalists, thought to look for this kinda thing? Seems like a non-obvious logical trick.)
Read 4 tweets
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Moshe Hoffman
@Moshe_Hoffman
Hmm interesting question.

My take on cause of/lesson of replicability/p-hacking issues:

Classic motivated reasoning

People have strong incentive to 1) cheat, but to do so in ways that are 2) culturally acceptable and 2) plausibly deniable. AND to 3) avoid self-reflection

No?
(Thus replicability issue doesn’t say *much* about the individual (albeit is clearly a moral hazard component and individual differences to susceptibility therein), but about problems w/ institutional incentives+human nature.)
(And moral hazard component is quite hard to detect/penalize. Partly because so much is unobservable. But also even when confident the researcher was iffy, are huge incentives not to call out if not sure/others don’t agree. Hence why plausible deniability so useful.)
Read 5 tweets

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Demola Olarewaju
@DemolaRewaju
In the journey to remove, replace and upgrade on Buhari, it’s understandable that many cannot wait but we need to understand that the process cannot be compromised without the result being fatal.

I’m personally amazed at how quickly Atiku has moved since the primaries.
A while back, the idea that PDP could be a strong force going into 2019 was so far-fetched that some of our most committed members and leaders declared the party dead and some even formed other parties to be a third force.

Our position at that time was clear, steady and solid.
Those were in the heady days of the Makarfi-Sheriff tussle.

Then came the time to choose a new Chairman and the SW bungling of a position that had been zoned to Agbaje which led to the emergence of Prince Uche Secondus as Chairman - many again felt that PDP would collapse.
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Matt Stickland
@LandOfSticks
Good morning sports fans it's day two of the #cpc18. I'm not there yet, but my coverage is starting early thanks to internet feelers I put out yesterday. I'm hearing that axing supply management has been scheduled as the last policy vote in it's session.
And that because it's the last vote in the session party members are going to try and run the clock on the policy session so it never comes to a vote, and therefore is shot down without being explicitly voted against.
I'll try and chase that down once I'm actually there.
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Daniel Keohane
@KeohaneDan
Good piece by ⁦@laurnorman⁩ on EU-UK security cooperation post-Brexit, with a nice quote from ⁦@jan_techau⁩: The EU “are negotiating a geopolitical issue of enormous eminence and they are negotiating this as a bureaucratic issue”. wsj.com/articles/troub…
I have long argued that EU-UK foreign and defence cooperation should be a “win-win” area, even naively hoping that a quick succesful resolution might encourage a more positive negotiating atmosphere generally. This was my take for @CSS_Zurich in March 2017 css.ethz.ch/content/dam/et…
Why has it not panned out like this? I think there are a few reasons. In general, on EU side, seems to be growing distrust of UK postions, because of muddled way HMG has handled the negotiations. Specifically on defence, I also wonder if UK over-estimated strength of this card.
Read 16 tweets
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Tim Skellett
@Gurdur
There is an excellent Spanish movie, Alatriste, which opens with a map, and the caption, "When Spain ruled the world". And it's quite amazing; for a period of around 40 years, it really looked like Spain ruled the world. And for longer, it looked like Spain might rule forever
And somewhere around 1600 A.D., it looked like Spain would come to rule the world. It had THE best infantry in the world, the truly feared Spanish tercios. It had a huge, world-spanning empire. It had incredible wealth. And then it all went south, quickly, much by 1650 A.D.
Witticisms can be misleading, but sometimes it's true to say that every great strength hides a great weakness. Spain ruled a huge empire. Almost every single part would rebel. Spain had the world's best infantry - but b/c of aridity, meaning few horses in Spain, little cavalry.
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Alexandra Erin In A One-Horse Open Sleigh
@alexandraerin
Good morning, babies. It's taken me a couple of days to locate a transcript of Trump's Pensacola campaign speech. In a few minutes I'm going to begin a dive into it.
Reminder (or alert, for new followers) that what I do isn't fact-checking. I'll sometimes highlight falsehoods, but that's not my main skill set. I recommend leaving that to professionals. politifact.com/truth-o-meter/…
What I do is analyze Trump's speeches and interviews the way I might analyze a story, or any other bit of communication. Language and character are my specialties.
Read 181 tweets
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Ijeoma Oluo
@IjeomaOluo
Yeah so check this shit out:

today I got a call from a major national paper I'd never worked with before, offering work...
Saying they were writing an editorial about these recent sexual harassment and abuse cases. They were going to write about how it's great that women are coming forward, but that we need to treat each case individually and remember due process.
They wanted to know if I would write a rebuttal to their editorial.

I was like, um... call me... I need more info.
Read 15 tweets

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