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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Tories plan to limit debate on any Brexit plan B to just 90 minutes (if TM loses Meaningful Vote), and accept only *one* amendment on that new plan.

So we may end up with a Brexit decided in less time than the length of an average film.

Disgusting. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
Of course this makes potential for no deal that much greater, because it seems unlikely weak second round scrutiny would produce a consensus.

So then it's "no deal" behind door number one, or "revoke Article 50" behind door number 2. Or a second referendum. But certainly a mess!
So the move could be seen as an extension of Tory efforts to use the scare of no deal to push MPs to vote for Theresa May's initial deal.
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More from @uk_domain_names see all

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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Esther McVey TODAY talked about the "implementation period" after a no deal Brexit on WTO terms.

Like somebody walking onto a football pitch in the 90th minute, picking up the ball, running down the field & scoring a touchdown. Staggering lack of understanding of fundamentals!
Stupidity so great, it gets you trending (alongside Liam Fox and his Brexit "isn't national suicide" comment.)
That really should be a clue to all politicians: when you pop in, have a little chat in the studio, and bang you're a Twitter trend, it's not because you're fascinating... It's because somewhere in your word salad was nonsense so ridiculous, the whole country is talking about it.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Ah, David Davis... even a broken calendar would be right more often. Here's what he said on 10 October 2016:-
"I think we can take it as read that what our European opposite numbers are saying today is not necessarily what they will be saying tomorrow."
theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=20…
In fact, the most remarkable thing about the whole Brexit process (and in hindsight the most predictable) is the unwavering steadiness of the EU's position. They came together as 27, advanced a common position (based solidly on EU law) and never wavered from it.
Here's another DD classic: "More generally, one of the things that I have discovered in the past few months is that in many areas—not just the City, and not just as regards cars—the balance of negotiating advantage is incredibly heavily stacked our way."
theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=20…
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Could Theresa May's Brexit plan B be to do a Cameron: summon the press to Downing Street, quit, then stroll off into Number 10 whistling?

That would go a long way towards explaining why not a word of it has leaked, despite plentiful leaks on all other aspects of Brexit.
Has the added bonus from her POV of stiffing the Brexiters with Brexit at the point of absolutely zero wriggle room, where they have to step up and show competence.
Even that probably wouldn't put the hardcore Brexit headbangers off applying for the role.

Remember, history will remember you were Prime Minister forever, even if you only did the job for a few hours or days before running to the Queen in a panic to tender your own resignation.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. There is a goliath dishonesty afoot among the leave camp that I want no part of. Everyone from Gisela Stuart through to Spiked Online, CrapX and John Redwood are pretending that anything that isn't no deal is not #Brexit. This is a sickening lie.
2. International relations are a rich tapestry of agreements ranging from exchange of letters through to mutual recognition agreements through to formal MoUs and FTAs. Nobody deals one default terms alone.
3. To that that end every nation on earth has binding obligations both with trading partners and international organisations on everything from fishing to space policy. Everything functions on integrated systems of rules.
Read 23 tweets
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Ben Goren
@BanGaoRen
How a People's Vote could be justified by Labour:
- TM loses meaningful vote & vote of confidence, calls GE
- Labour wins GE, requests EU to renegotiate terms of Brexit
- EU refuses to renegotiate: TM's deal or cancel Article 50
- Corbyn calls for PV TM Deal Vs Remain Vs No Deal
Notes:
1st, a GE that Labour won would be the first prerequisite. Labour can't unilaterally call a PV nor will TM listen to calls for one.
2nd, there needs to be three options on the PV not two. It's not to split a vote on either side but to give full choice.
3rd, with three choices no need for a vote threshold (which would be objected to b/c Cameron didn't put one in the original vote & part why we're in this mess)
4th, Labour has to wait until and when the EU signals it won't accept a renegotiation. Otherwise it's electoral suicide.
Read 3 tweets
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Isolated Brit
@IsolatedBrit
Tories blame BBC for undermining #Brexit ...
Tories blame British businesses for undermining #Brexit ...
Tories blame Brexit for undermining #Brexit ...
Read 42 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. So with #Brexit, we now have a provisional whole UK political agreement that we will have regulatory alignment with a view to maintaining free movement of goods. The future trade agreement will have to respect those conditions.
2. That is a long winded way of say that so far as goods are concerned, we are staying in the single market. That though does not take into account services, air travel and the many other areas covered by the EEA agreement. That is still for negotiation.
3. When it comes down to that, it is likely that the UK will wish to preserve as much access to the EU aviation market as possible with the same or similar rights to the EEA. We have, as yet, no concrete position on what the UK will ask for in terms of services.
Read 25 tweets

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