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Re-reading @ianbremmer's book in anticipation of our discussion and podcast next week. Some thoughts about globalization in general (not necessarily tied to Ian's analysis). /1
First, I am always struck by the way we all talk about globalization as if it were a *choice.* As though "elites" went out and "chose" globalization in opposition to some other option, or some other road that was open after the 1970s. (Note: not the 80s. Earlier.) /2
Globalization was no more a choice than, say, "radio" was a choice. It was going to happen. The only question is how much price anyone wanted to pay to slow it or redistribute its wealth. But it's not an ideology, and "globalism" vs "nationalism" is a false choice. /3
But yes, elites made choices that made globalization easier: treaties, including free trade arrangements. But again, the option was...what? "We decline to participate in the rapid movement of goods and services and money and ideas?" That wasn't going to happen. /4
What's galling about complaints about globalization is that it happened because people who are *now* complaining about it wanted its benefits. The American working class wanted cheap phones and TVs and cool cars. What they *didn't* want was an explanation of how that works. /5
And yes, that system of trade exploded inequality in wealth. As a practical matter (and Ian's book is important here), I care. That has political consequences. How to manage the resentment and relative sense of deprivation matters. But is this a moral matter? Not to me. /6
I've often wondered if the average worker even knows what difference it makes. If you tell someone "the head of the company makes 50 times what you make," it has a different effect than saying "50,000 times what you make," but it wouldn't change things on the ground. /7
And at some point, we have to talk about the way in which people demanded things of a globalized, high-speed world that weren't good for them - hi, porn and gambling! - or in unhealthy quantities. (Disney used to be a once-in-a-lifetime thing, not a frequent flyer program.) /8
People blaming the 1980s and Reagan and Clinton and the internet bubble and Bush and the bankers... they're still acting the way Americans act: running up debt and doing unhealthy things like drinking and drugs. This time, however, white people have found an apologist: Trump. /9
This current age of populism is about scapegoating, and Trump sold that beautifully. But even in France or Germany or Italy, ask the populists: what is it you want? They'll answer: no more immigrants. But yes, please, cheap goods and farm products and service people. /10
Beyond that, what they want is what populists always want: more taxation for you, less taxation for me; someone to rationalize away the consequences of their choices and unwillingness to defer gratification or live "like their parents" (which no one is really willing to do). /11
If you want to redistribute wealth, fine. Say so. But stop blaming "elites" for the fact that no one wants to make tires in a century-old factory in the Frost Belt, or that you wanted a cheap 50-inch television, a 0.9 percent car loan, and new smartphones every two years. /12
More to come next week. /13x
