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1/ So @TeslaCharts finally posted his lengthy plea today, subtly imploring journalists to find the VINs that he can't. goo.gl/VnoMfc
In this thread I will not only explain where his data and conclusions are wrong, but also explain the obvious psychology at play.
In this thread I will not only explain where his data and conclusions are wrong, but also explain the obvious psychology at play.
2/ While it's impressive to pen 30 pages filled with Wikipedia entries and charts and then (innocently) tag @danahull he ultimately admits he doesn't even know what he's looking at and he demonstrates that his own data contradicts his source. $TSLA #ExplainTheVINs
3/ First his data.
His data is a derivative of the real data. His source is IHS Markit. The real source is NMVTIS. Yet, his data doesn't even match IHS Markit.
He tells us IHS Markit estimates 80,337 Model 3s registered through Oct.
Notice any issues here? $TSLA $TSLAQ
His data is a derivative of the real data. His source is IHS Markit. The real source is NMVTIS. Yet, his data doesn't even match IHS Markit.
He tells us IHS Markit estimates 80,337 Model 3s registered through Oct.
Notice any issues here? $TSLA $TSLAQ
4/ Second, IHS Markit lags NMVTIS which lags vehicle sales by the amount of time it takes the local DMVs to notify the National system.
The "T" in NMVTIS is for "Title".
State DMVs report the title. Maybe @danahull can help us understand why the DMV is slow in such matters
The "T" in NMVTIS is for "Title".
State DMVs report the title. Maybe @danahull can help us understand why the DMV is slow in such matters
5/ What does the "real" data look like?
For the real data you need to track LIVE registrations with the NMVTIS.
@TeslaCharts is not doing this nor has he figured out that this is his first problem.
Here's what the live NMVTIS records look like.
For the real data you need to track LIVE registrations with the NMVTIS.
@TeslaCharts is not doing this nor has he figured out that this is his first problem.
Here's what the live NMVTIS records look like.
6/ Notice that LIVE registrations match the (tardy) IHS Markit data, and show that @TeslaCharts numbers and graph are flawed.
But what else do the Live registrations show? Two things.
But what else do the Live registrations show? Two things.
7/ First. There is a consistent 4-WEEK delay from the vehicle sale to the state DMVs registering the Title registration with NMVTIS.
That's it.
Solve this delay and/or shorten the lines at the DMV and you'll probably get the key to the city. @danahull please investigate.
That's it.
Solve this delay and/or shorten the lines at the DMV and you'll probably get the key to the city. @danahull please investigate.
8/ But there's more. Second --
@TeslaCharts claims that Tesla just registered a bunch of VINs in late January after the math minors at $TSLAQ caught them!
Remember the 4-week delay I just showed you?
Well, @TeslaCharts just found the December Model 3 sales push. 🤡
@TeslaCharts claims that Tesla just registered a bunch of VINs in late January after the math minors at $TSLAQ caught them!
Remember the 4-week delay I just showed you?
Well, @TeslaCharts just found the December Model 3 sales push. 🤡
9/ Hmm. Maybe there's a similar (but smaller) bump for the end of Q3 sales push?
A four week delay means we should see a similar bump toward the end of October ...
Nah, that would be too easy. Oh wait.
A four week delay means we should see a similar bump toward the end of October ...
Nah, that would be too easy. Oh wait.
10/ All of this was explained to TeslaCharts, but he responded like any grown-up would.
And then blocked everyone involved.
And then blocked everyone involved.
11/ So why is he now in a total $TSLAQ echo-chamber, suddenly fighting for a make-believe cause?
Because he pledged to delete his account when Tesla posts two consecutive quarters of GAAP profit.
That will be January 30th.
/FIN
Because he pledged to delete his account when Tesla posts two consecutive quarters of GAAP profit.
That will be January 30th.
/FIN
