Thread by @ChangePolls

Change Research polled 1028 registered voters in swing states (AZ, CO, FL, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, and WI) about immigration issues and the government shutdown, Jan. 18-21.

tinyurl.com/ya8xwp9d

Swing states voters’ biggest concern over the shutdown:

Government workers are not getting paid 31%
Politicians refuse to compromise 28%
Our border is not secure 24%
Important services are not getting funded 16%

Democrats far more concerned about government workers not getting paid (49%) and important services are not getting funded (30%).

Republicans worry about politicians refusing to compromise (36%) and the border not being secure (49%).

Registered voters in swing states:

Has the shutdown impacted your life?
Yes 34%
No 58%
Not sure 8%

Will the shutdown impact your life if it continues?
Yes 59%
No 32%
Not sure 9%

Swing states Democrats see the shutdown impacting their life far more than Republicans.

Has the shutdown impacted your life?

Democrats
Yes 49%
No 36%
Not sure 14%

Republicans
Yes 18%
No 79%
Not sure 3%

Independents
Yes 34%
No 60%
Not sure 6%

Democrats overwhelmingly see the shutdown having a deepening impact on the their life going forward. Republicans are divided.

Will the shutdown impact your life if it continues?

Democrats
Yes 81%
No 10%

Republicans
Yes 37%
No 56%

Independent
Yes 61%
No 29%

How would you rate the jobs the following individuals and groups are doing regarding the shutdown?

tinyurl.com/ya8xwp9d

Who is most to blame for the shutdown:

Trump and Congressional Republicans 46%
Congressional Democrats 35%
Trump and Congressional Democrats equally to blame 17%
Don’t know 1%

How should the shutdown be resolved:

Democrats need to give Trump wall funding 38%
Government should be reopened and border security addressed separately 27%
Trump needs to give up on wall funding 23%
Trump should temporarily reopen government, let both sides negotiate 11%

How intense an effect would a missed paycheck have on your life:

Severe effect 44%
Moderate effect 25%
Mild effect 15%
Very mild effect 9%
No effect 7%

Which is closer to your view:

Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents 52%
Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care 39%
Not sure 9%

tinyurl.com/ya8xwp9d

Swing state voters oppose an effort by the federal govt to deport all undocumented immigrants, 59-38.

Favor or oppose an effort by the federal govt to deport all undocumented immigrants?

Strongly favor 18%
Somewhat favor 20%
Somewhat oppose 19%
Strongly oppose 40%
Not sure 4%

44% of swing state voters think border security should be a top priority.

Republicans in swing states consider being attacked/killed by undocumented immigrants to be a bigger risk than being injured/killed in a car accident.

Each year, approximately 37,000 Americans are killed in car accidents. Approximately 500 are killed by undocumented immigrants.

44% of Republicans and 49% of 2016 Trump voters in swing states say that illegal immigration is the most important issue to them. 3 months ago, 33% of Trump voters said illegal immigration was the most important issue to them.

tinyurl.com/ya8xwp9d

Swing state Democrats and independents overwhelmingly see undocumented immigrants as “honest people in search of a better life”. A plurality of Republicans see undocumented immigrants as “undesirable people, like criminals.”

64% of swing state voters agree with the statement:

“We need immigration reform that will provide a path to citizenship to the 11 million immigrants currently in the country illegally.”

Swing state voters overwhelmingly say Congress should prioritize keeping families together.

tinyurl.com/ya8xwp9d

63% of Clinton 2016 voters in swing states say one missed paycheck would have a severe effect on their lives.

21% of Trump 2016 voters say the same.

Income levels for Clinton and Trump voters are almost identical.

That 42% gap is driven by partisanship, not personal finances.