Thread by @ChangePolls

We polled in twelve House races between Saturday, 10/27 and Monday, 10/29:
- 12 districts Trump won by between 8 and 27 points
- Mostly districts in the Midwest (IA, IN, KS, MI, OH, WI), plus one each in CO, FL, NY
- Districts Trump won by an average of 16+ points.

We're going to share numbers from all twelve.

We start with races that are a little more R than the 2016 presidential vote
Then races (just one) exactly in line with 2016
Then races that are looking a little better for Dems
Then races that are looking a LOT better for Dems

CO-03 (n=485)

Scott Tipton (R) 53
Diane Mitsch (@RepDMB) (D) 38

Movement: 3 points to R (was Trump+12)

CO-03 is one of two districts we polled where the Republican candidate is doing better than Donald Trump did in 2016.

NY-01 (n=838)

Perry Gershon @perrygershon (D) 37
Lee Zeldin (R) 52

Movement: 3 points to R (was Trump+12)

The US Senate race in NY-01 is a dead heat, but Zeldin has a clear lead, thanks in large part to 47% favorability, 37% are unfavorable. Taxes quite important in NY-01.

FL-18 (n=475)

Brian Mast (R) 53
Lauren Baer @laurenbaer (D) 44

Movement: none (was Trump+9).

This race lines up with 2016 presidential vote. The two statewide Dems are both running ahead of Lauren Baer; environmental issues stand out as especially important in this district.

IL-16 (n=554)

Adam Kinzinger (R) 55
Sara Dady @Sara4Congress (D) 41

Movement: 3 points to D (was Trump+17)

JB Pritzker is a couple of points ahead of Bruce Rauner in this district, but Sara Dady trails by double digits.

OH-02 (n=431)

Brad Wenstrup (R) 52
Jill Schiller @jillschill (D) 39

Movement: 3 points to D (was Trump+16)

Another district where statewide Dems (in this case both Brown and Cordray) are running even with Republicans in the district, but the Congressional candidate is behind,

MI-06 (n=466)

Fred Upton (R) 46
Matt Longjohn @MattLongjohn (D) 43

Movement: 5 points to D (was Trump+8)

Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer.

IN-05 (n=527)

Susan Brooks (R) 50
Dee Thornton @VoteThornton (D) 44

Movement: 6 points to D (was Trump+12)

Trump is 47% favorable, 48% favorable in a district he won by 12. Donnelly leads in the district by 5.

MI-01 (n=574)

Jack Bergman (R) 54
Matthew Morgan @MorganForMI (D) 42

Movement: 9 points to D (was Trump+21)

Whitmer trails by just 3 points in this district.

WI-06 (n=525)

Glenn Grothman (R) 50
Dan Kohl @DanKohlWI (D) 48

Movement: 15 points to D (was Trump+17)

In WI-06, even splits:
- Trump is 48% favorable, 47% unfavorable
- Grothman is 33% favorable, 35% unfavorable
- US Senate race, Gov race, and the this race within 2 points.

KS-02 (n=902)

Paul Davis @PaulDavisKS (D) 44
Steve Watkins (R) 45

Movement: 17 points to D (was Trump+18)

Polling here lines up with other public polling. Education is the top issue here, and the Governor's race is tied within the district (45-45).

IN-09 (n=541)

Trey Hollingsworth (R) 52
Liz Watson @LizForIndiana (D) 45

Movement: 20 points to D (was Trump+27)

A perhaps surprisingly close race. Watson doing better than Donnelly here (he's down 9) and feelings on Trump are mixed (52% favorable, 42% unfavorable).

IA-04 (n=631)

J.D. Scholten @Scholten4Iowa (D) 44
Steve King (R) 45

Movement: 26 points to D (was Trump+27)

Trump won IA-04 by 27 points in 2016; King won by 23 points.

Trump opinion is divided (51% fav, 46% unfav); opinion toward King is quite negative (38% fav, 48% unfav).

Methodology note. Change Research polls online using a patent-pending approach called Bias Correct: unlike other online polls, we don't use panels, so we can poll affordably in small areas.

(We were the only pollster with Gillum ahead in FL Dem primary.) [e-mail]