Thread by @FreeStateFUD

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1.)
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the great work conducted by SGF members can also be corroborated using the reported deliveries from @TroyTeslike great workbook and inside EVs monthly sales numbers.

2.)
In Troy's sheet he provides the number of reported deliveries per month dating back to April 2018. If we divided the deliveries reported to the tracker by Inside EVs monthly sales numbers we arrive at a monthly sample rate.

3.)
If we plot the sample rate vs the month (April =1, May=2, ect.) on a Log-Log plot a trend emerges. We can model this trend using a best fit line to predict a sample rate for January 2019 and see how our model would have performed predicting past monthly sample rates.

4.) The following table shows the past monthly sample rates vs what the model would have predicted. Although not perfect, the model has generally done a good job at predicting each months sample rate and would predict a sample rate of 1.21% for January 2019.

5.) It can be noted, the month of September resulted in a 59% difference between the model sample rate and the actual sample rate calculated using Troys sheet and Inside EVs numbers.

6.) For the month of January Troys sheet has a total of 3 reported U.S deliveries....... Using the models 1.21% sample rate we end up with a total of 249 model 3s delivered in the U.S.

7.) Even giving Tesla the benefit of the doubt and applying the highest error (59%) observed between the model and the actual sample rate, we end up with a sample rate of .66% and total model 3 deliveries of 455 for the month of January.

8.) Although completely empirical, this model is signaling an absolutely disastrous month for Tesla. By adding together the SGF reports conducted by @Latrilife, @DeanSheikh1, @cppinvest, @witwwos as well as the very low number of reported deliveries in Troys sheet.

8 cont.) We have 5 different data points suggesting a full blown demand crisis at Tesla.

Thanks for reading. Let me know if you have any complaints regarding this way of predicting January's sample rate.

CC @TeslaCharts @LeftHandPole