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Su Zhu
@zhusu
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Yuzawa is a ski resort area in Japan with apartments selling for $1mill USD in the late 1980s. Now they go for $100 USD.
Why so cheap? The monthly homeowner fees + taxes make it incredibly negative carry.
Real estate is just a name on a HOA/govt ledger.

japanpropertycentral.com/2017/05/yuzawa…
Real estate is simply the acquiring of cash flows (to receive rent, to pay fees, to pay taxes). This right is worthless in a whole host of situations, including the one above. These people buying for $1mill were prob murmuring "something something all the rich ppl I know."
Interestingly, if they had bought near forests/onsens, they wouldve been much better off. There, a $1mill apartment is still worth $200k today b/c retirees "prefer a slow-paced hot spring area with a nice climate over one that is primarily ski-oriented."

japanpropertycentral.com/2013/10/first-…
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Su Zhu
@zhusu
Since 1/1/2013, only two TA strategies (MACD and Exponential MA) have outperformed Buy & Hold.
Since 1/1/2014, various MA strategies have outperformed. 2015 start date looks similar.
The worst strats since 2013 are KBand, RSI, CCI, BB, Stoch. Down since BTC was $13.30!
Bad TA is not just marginally bad--it can mean being net down trading an asset that has gone 1,500x and is still 250x from start date.
Look how bad RSI style strategies are for crypto relative to people's insistence on using them.

For ETH since Feb 2018, even though Buy&Hold is the absolute worst strategy, KBand/BB/RSI are pretty close behind.

Trend-following sounds easy but is psychologically contrarian.
Read 4 tweets
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Su Zhu
@zhusu
1)
 a) Every stock market has had stretches of negative real returns. 50year breakeven in France, Germany, Japan!
b) War and politics matter. Cash flow analysis fails when assets get seized.
c) The biggest bull runs are post-war (6.5x in 5yrs Germany, 5.8x in 5yrs Japan).
2)
 a) Steve Bannon suggests 100yr cycles between peace & war.
b) Thucydides trap is becoming household phrase.
c) Annexation of Crimea. Tension in South China Sea. Proxy war in Syria.
d) Trade war has been 20years+ (from China's PoV). What would escalation look like?
3) worrying signs
a) Sharp increase in minority crackdown in China aljazeera.com/indepth/opinio…
b) Nostalgia for the ethnostate, personality triumphing institutional power (NPC allowed Xi to rule for life)
d) Commensurate trends in the West toward economic if not cultural nationalism
Read 3 tweets

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You might have heard that #Japan is set to resume commercial whaling. The truth is, they never quit commercial whaling, they have just called it "research" whaling since the late 80s, but it's been a commercial venture despite the fake name. So why are they now making the change?
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ALIF
@alfzmn
Japan thread. Nak simpan gambar-gambar kat sini. Boleh la semua tengok-tengok. Dan, tak ada edit2 kot sebab tak reti haha. And of course, ini adalah thread.
Gerak dengan dak2 ni
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