1)
a) Every stock market has had stretches of negative real returns. 50year breakeven in France, Germany, Japan!
b) War and politics matter. Cash flow analysis fails when assets get seized.
c) The biggest bull runs are post-war (6.5x in 5yrs Germany, 5.8x in 5yrs Japan).
a) Every stock market has had stretches of negative real returns. 50year breakeven in France, Germany, Japan!
b) War and politics matter. Cash flow analysis fails when assets get seized.
c) The biggest bull runs are post-war (6.5x in 5yrs Germany, 5.8x in 5yrs Japan).
2)
a) Steve Bannon suggests 100yr cycles between peace & war.
b) Thucydides trap is becoming household phrase.
c) Annexation of Crimea. Tension in South China Sea. Proxy war in Syria.
d) Trade war has been 20years+ (from China's PoV). What would escalation look like?
a) Steve Bannon suggests 100yr cycles between peace & war.
b) Thucydides trap is becoming household phrase.
c) Annexation of Crimea. Tension in South China Sea. Proxy war in Syria.
d) Trade war has been 20years+ (from China's PoV). What would escalation look like?
3) worrying signs
a) Sharp increase in minority crackdown in China aljazeera.com/indepth/opinio…
b) Nostalgia for the ethnostate, personality triumphing institutional power (NPC allowed Xi to rule for life)
d) Commensurate trends in the West toward economic if not cultural nationalism
a) Sharp increase in minority crackdown in China aljazeera.com/indepth/opinio…
b) Nostalgia for the ethnostate, personality triumphing institutional power (NPC allowed Xi to rule for life)
d) Commensurate trends in the West toward economic if not cultural nationalism
