Thread by @nicholaswatt

I reported last night on Newsnight: strong rumours that Sarah Woolaston, Anna Soubry and Heidi Allen would defect to the Independent Group this morning. Looking like it may happen shortly before PMQs

@Anna_Soubry @sarahwollaston @heidiallen75 @BBCNewsnight @TheIndGroup

A source in The Independent Group told me last night of possible defection of the three Tories: I can neither confirm nor deny. But tomorrow [Wednesday] will be a busy day

Tory whips had assumed Anna Soubry would jump ship when new group was established on Monday. Suspicions grew that afternoon when she failed to vote in three Commons votes even though she was neither slipped nor paired. Tory whips saying the three have gone ‘very very silent’

The defection of three Tory MPs would be symbolically far more significant than defection of eight Labour MPs. They would be crossing the floor of the Commons to sit on opposition benches

The defection of three Tories would make the numbers even tighter in parliament for Theresa May. With the DUP she would have the support of 324 MPs. You need 322 to command a majority, counting out the speaker and seven Sinn Fein MPs

The new tighter numbers in parliament could be used by Leo Varadkar who has been telling Sinn Fein they should take their seats when future of Ireland at stake. If SF did so and the three Tory defectors voted with the opposition Theresa May could lose a no confidence notion

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald told Andrew Marr Sinn Fein would not take its seats for the obvious historical reasons around abstention. But she also said her seven MPs would not make a difference at Westminster. That second argument now open to challenge

@MaryLouMcDonald

Senior Liberal Democrat told me they would reach a cooperation agreement with the Independent Group. Senior IG source told me they want to keep their distance from the Lib Dems. ‘There is no way we are joining the Lib Dems. No way,’ source told me

@TheIndGroup @LibDems

Word is new defections set for 11am