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The success or failure of @TheIndGroup and perhaps other splits may be determined by marginal tactical decisions now, that turn out later to have been major strategic choices. Extreme care is needed. 1/
I think it *could* be a mistake to drift into becoming one all-purpose "centre party" drawing from all other parties. The risk is of having no clear identity, electoral positioning or mission. If this is where it's going, those joining now must communicate a clear aim. 2/
I think Conservatives tempted to follow the example of @TheIndGroup might do better to form their own separate "one nation" group. There's no reason moderates can't inspire each other and work together rather than join the same team. 3/
Another option is to make it clear that @TheIndGroup is a loose alliance from which one *or more* new parties might be formed one day, and that joining it is less an open-ended commitment to a single unknown new party, more a break from the big bodysnatched parties. 4/
A dangerous strategic question is that of relations with the LibDems. It's easy for cooperation with them to become a takeover by them, as the SDP found. Or toxifying. I think any new party would be wise to keep some distance and differentiate itself strongly from the LibDems. 5/
In fact any new party must at least consider the possible strategic advantage in aiming to eliminate and replace the LibDems rather than working with them at all. 6/
But I think the most sensible option might be to have a clear but *limited* mission now. The obvious one is to stop Brexit, or at least secure a People's Vote. You might widen that to opposing the social division Brexit's led to or uncovered, and to alternative solutions. 7/
People mention by elections but the big electoral opportunity potentially approaching is the European elections - as Nigel Farage knows very well. It's a chance for his Brexit party, and it's also a chance for a Stop Brexit list. 8/
Conventional wisdom is that new parties can't succeed "because of first past the post". Maybe. But if there's a huge decisive issue with half of voters feeling unrepresented, and maybe a single-issue PR election on the horizon, conventional wisdom may end up looking silly. 9/
So if I were involved in this new movement I'd advise it to focus on working together now against Brexit, to be openly agnostic about institutional questions and the future, and to be visibly different and distant from the LibDems. 10/
