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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Almost every system involves tradeoffs, but systems in space are particularly so. For example, a non-geostationary satellite system must serve everywhere on Earth to serve anywhere. Bad: peak negative cash flow is far higher. Good: satellites are closer. washingtonpost.com/technology/201…
In a space-based communications business the various risks are all interrelated, including:
Market risk - will enough dogs will the dog food?
Technical/product risk - will it work/not break?
Financial risk - don't run out of cash (ever)!
Regulatory risk- can you serve customers?
OneWeb now has satellites to test, but just as importantly "went into service" under a coordination regime that I helped negotiate at world radio conferences at the ITU in Geneva in 1995 and 1997. OneWeb's using rules created for Skybridge. My badge from one conference is below:
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Podcasting or blogging involves at least two sets of unit economics. Creators have the option to roll their own. Anyone who wants to syndicate them must offer a better outcome than doing it themselves. This sets up a wholesale transfer price negotiation. What's the revenue split?
When a syndicator like Medium or these "Netflix of podcasting" businesses negotiate they must offer a deal that is better than a "do it yourself" option. For me, the ability to ensure that there are no ads for financial scams or even "My Pillow" on 25IQ is an essential element.
Up the value chain from the customer is the podcaster. That podcaster and the syndicator have different amounts of pricing power. Any syndicator who ignores that the podcaster has an alternative (a BATNA) will have many of the same problems as Medium. fastcompany.com/90315635/why-p…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
What kills a business is a lack of cash. What causes a business like meal delivery (kit or prepared) to run out of cash are broken unit economics. Munchery's Chapter 11 reveals they still don't understand the impact of customer churn (inverse of retention) gallery.mailchimp.com/8d06deefb7d38f…
"Companies that retain their customers ...should be awarded a much higher multiple than another business that do not ... even if the historical revenue patterns look exactly the same." knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/game-c… The financial impact of greater customer retention can be non linear.
Why isn't Munchery a Chapter 7?

I illustrate the unit economics of a fictional business named "Blue Oven" here: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

Unit Economics: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

Churn/retention: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

CAC: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

GM: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Read 5 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"'Cash flow from GE’s industrial operations will be negative this year' .. This year’s cash outflow from the power division will be worse than last year’s $2.7B burn.' bloomberg.com/amp/news/artic… Exactly backward: "The metric is considered an indicator of earnings potential."
"Earnings" are only an indicator of future cash flow which investors can actually spend. It's a DCF not DE. "The value of any financial asset boils down to three things: some measure of cash flow, some measure of risk, and some measure of forecast horizon." Michael Mauboussin
It is not possible to pay for "in-home, assisted living or skilled nursing care" with "earnings." What will pay for that is absolute dollar free cash flow. google.com/amp/s/mobile.r…
Read 3 tweets

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Colin McKay
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Today.. the political influence of Jewish chauvinism & religious fanaticism is much greater than that of antisemitism.

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This morning I've finished Scott Kellys (@StationCDRKelly) Book "Endurance" ( bit.ly/endurance-scot… ). Some thoughts below.
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Rhett Allain
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THREAD - How about a bunch of blog posts on #Space and #Astronomy? Yes, I have more than you can imagine - especially since these are really just #physics topics. Hold on - because this is going to be a bit large.
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