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Okay, so you want to know if Theresa may is going to win her vote on March 14th.
Well, no, she's not.
And then you want to know what happens after that.
She's going to resign. And the Tories will abandon the whole thing.
Well, no, she's not.
And then you want to know what happens after that.
She's going to resign. And the Tories will abandon the whole thing.
So let's go through one by one. First there's no real danger in rejecting it again because last night parliament voted to allow itself to decide what happens after that.
No one really believes they're at the edge of calamity, so then it's all about what brexiteers and remainers think is best for them.
We know Labour is going to vote against, apart from one or two unteachables.
We know Labour is going to vote against, apart from one or two unteachables.
So Theresa May needs all the Tory votes. And that means all the remainers and all the Brexiteers are going to have to vote for the same thing for exactly opposite reasons.
I think the remainers will just vote whatever they're told. I think they're just too limp and wet to risk anything else.
Then it's entirely up to the Brexiteers, will they accept it or not.
Then it's entirely up to the Brexiteers, will they accept it or not.
Some will. Mogg probably will because he thinks he can sabotage the next stage. But there's two groups I don't think will vote for it. The DUP because they really can't reconcile themselves, and the Boris Johnson crowd because they want Theresa May out.
