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A thought as we all desperately try to peer into crystal balls and predict the #Brexit What Next: Fact that talks between Cox and Commission not going well hardly surprising. He marched over to Brussels pushing for what EU always said it couldn’t and wouldn’t give on backstop 1
But this is not the end of the road. I’m not saying the EU will “blink”and give UK something as black and white/ backstop-weakening as a unilateral exit clause but what I am saying is: it is in EUs interest to keep up pressure on MPs 2
EU wants to see if - under pressure - MPs will start uniting more around one #Brexit direction: the Theresa May deal or a softer Brexit- The EU sees less likelihood right now of second referendum or no deal Brexit majority support 3
Ultimately EU leaders will not want to be blamed for a messy Brexit so they certainly haven’t played their last hand -whatever that “hand” may be because at same time they don’t want single market exposure or to throw Ireland under a bus (hence: watertight backstop) .. 4
We don’t know if EU-UK talks will come up with ‘something’ this weekend. It certainly makes sense to make a last-minute announcement ahead of Tuesday’s vote .. before a proposal can be picked apart by MPs, media and the public BUT 5
Remember whatever emerges or does not emerge now, EU diplomats always say their deadline is 29 March not the “crunch” dates for votes etc the PM self-imposes inbetween 6
