Thread by @pmdfoster

Right #Brexit peeps, what is going on? What happens next?

Short answer is its all pretty fluid, but here's what I think I know after usual chats with both etc (1/thread)

May will ask for extension to June 30, per reports.

Less clear if she will also say UK prepared to 'no deal' on June 30. That might be a key omission to watch, on which more later.

So will the EU agree? /2

Not necessarily. As @adamfleming warned this AM - and later confirmed by @JunckerEU interview - EU may say a short extension is "conditional" on May passive her deal next week (presumed new vote Mon or Tues)

That would be a reason for a short extension/3

@adamfleming @JunckerEU Otherwise leaders would have to extension on her say-so. And let's face it, she hasn't inpsired confidence of late.

So the EU could play it tough: if she gets the deal through, she gets the extension. If not, then not. /4

@adamfleming @JunckerEU But that is a high-risk strategy on EU side that isn't prepared for a 'no deal' (who is?) and would leave tiny window in the event May fails to win MV3.

Even if she wins the timetable for a statutory instrument inserting new leave date is tight. /5

@adamfleming @JunckerEU And if she loses in those circumstances, it gets even tighter.

May would need to go back to leaders and ask for the longer extension that sources told me an @JamedsCrisp6 that David Lidington was discussiong with ministers and officials before Cabinet shut him down. /6

@adamfleming @JunckerEU Could she do this without splitting the party? Collapsing her government?

A General Election would be a reason for a longer extension; or to explore an new (Norway) option that had demonstrated support in the House via indicative votes. /7

But that really is what one Tory peer just describd to me as "squeaky bum time", and notwithstanding clear majority in House against a 'no deal' it will require some brave interventions to stop it happening. The 'accidental' no deal cannot be ruled out. /8

So isn't that a pretty risk move by EU27?

Yes, and it is still possible EU leaders will take a different route when they meet on Thursday and agree to Mrs May’s request for an extension to June 30.

French are pushing very hard line I hear, but Germans less so /9

They may attach a rider noting that the UK must have held European Parliamentary elections on May 23-26 if they want to have a longer extension in the future. /10

This would set an effective deadline of April 12 for the UK to decide if it wanted a long extension, or wanted to ‘crash out’ without a deal on June 30 /11

They could also, as @jamescrisp6 and I report, insert a ‘mea culpa’ clause making plain that failure to hold those elections would entirely be the decision of the UK, and if it led to a ‘no deal’ that would be the UK’s fault, not Europe’s. /12

@JamesCrisp6 Alternatively, the EU could not take that risk and simply offer Mrs May a much shorter extension to April 12 to either pass her deal, or choose to go for a longer extension (with above-noted conditions) if she fails. /13

@JamesCrisp6 Which begs one more Q: If the EU granted the UK an extension to June 30 or May 22, and the deadline for notifying for EU elections passed on April 12 without the UK notifying its intention to hold the poll, would the EU really just sit and let the British go ‘off the cliff’? /13

@JamesCrisp6 So if the British came back, say, on June 20 requesting a long extension (and agreeing to hold EU elections as expeditiously as possible) would the EU really say no? /14

@JamesCrisp6 This is essentially a political question, since as UK officials point out, legally an EU member state that has failed to hold elections does not automatically tumble out of the EU. /15

@JamesCrisp6 It was notable to see Martin Selmayor and European Parliament comms chief Jaume Duch openly disagreeing on Twitter this weekend.

In short, a lot of Commission fretting over the elections is political spin over legal substance/16

@JamesCrisp6 If Member failed to hold elections they'd end up in the European Court of Justice where an infringement proceeding would take place and a remedy sought. Which in this case would be an offer to hold European Elections as expeditiously as possible. If UK offered wd ECJ say no?/17

@JamesCrisp6 UK holding elections in June/Sept would be a ‘messy’ situation for the EU, sure.

But would it be messier than a Brexit no deal? This is the question that EU leaders would have to grapple with.

But it seems foremost a poltiical question, not a legal one/ 18

@JamesCrisp6 There has been talk of other 'fixes' - the UK appointing MEPs temporarily like an acceding state does - but talking to EU dips and officials it seems the mood is a million miles from that level of accommodation.

"Nothing must 'infect' or destabilise the workings of the EU"/19

@JamesCrisp6 As I said at the top, the situation is very fluid. No crystal balls here.

Maybe EU leaders are out of patience. Maybe Macron zeal wins over Merkel's innate caution? Lots of mixed messages about. Lots of static....but please stay tuned. ENDS/20