Thread by @UofGVC

As we approach the latest round of ‘decisions’ (sic) on Brexit by House of Commons., some thoughts on the odds of various scenarios.
1.

First of all, it’s worth reminding ourselves that Brussels cannot and will not offer a unilateral exit from the NI element of the backstop. A time-limited backstop is a contradiction in terms. Hence @MichelBarnier latest thread sets out how far the EU might go on this
2.

The UK had requested a more complex backstop incorporating a customs arrangement with the UK in the negotiations, rather than a NI specific backstop. This was a big achievement by UK negotiators. The EU had resisted it.
But the ERG rebuffed the PM because they don’t want...
3.

...anything which isn’t a ‘clean break’ and which constrains future UK trade policy. And the DUP still did not like the distinctive position for NI. On the UKG HoC benches it appears that you cannot please any of the people any of the time.
4.

So @MichelBarnier says ‘Fine - you can unilaterally leave the UK-wide customs arrangement. It was your idea anyway. But NI must remain aligned to the EU.’ At this point UKG only has one other choice to eliminate the backstop: it can keep the whole of the UK in the ESM and CU
5.

That’s the softest of all Brexits (EEA+) that many have advocated as the only type of Brexit which minimises the economic damage (but of course makes the UK a rule taker, and is worse than EU membership).It means shifting the red line on FoM and may involve other commitments
6.

It might even keep the DUP on board.But it involves splitting the Conservative Party, dumping the ERG’s support and reaching out for opposition support. Unless the PM can frighten enough of the ERG to vote for the current deal (it won’t change substantively over the weekend)...
7

...this is the only other possible way to get the WA over the line. BUT...The main issue for those advocating something softer like EEA+ in the PD or some vaguer commitment (CU plus a negotiation on future relationship with the EU) is that the PM cannot precommit a future UKG.
8.

And anything which falls short of EEA+ keeps the NI backstop in play and the DUP won’t buy it.
So my feeling at present: WA and PD go through as currently formulated 15%; current WA plus softer PD up to EEA+ 15%;
9.

no deal crash-out at 29 March as HoC can’t agree to take it off the table 20%; People’s Vote 20%; HoC takes control (or UKG finally concedes) to take no deal off table but no clear HoC consensus on future direction at 29 March so time runs out 30%.
10.

In the final scenario EU extends A50 process if it feels there may be some emerging consensus. Indeed in all scenarios A50 period would need to be extended. In no deal EU might play it differently depending on the dynamics in the HoC.
11.

Finally - a list of all the unicorns 🦄 and fantasies which are still roaming in UK political circles:
-technology to avoid NI backstop (might work in future but not here yet)
-Jobs First Brexit/ESM access without FoM
-A managed no deal

12.

-A fully negotiated EU FTA by 2020
- An FTA with EU post-Brexit which is ESM like
-An FTA with EU which doesn’t depend on our other trade deals (eg US food and agri deal)
-An automatic roll-over of favourable EU trade deals to UK post-Brexit
13.

-Automatic zero tariff trade with EU in case of no deal
-A time-limited backstop
Etc etc
I’ll have forgotten some.
Have a great weekend.
(Ends)