Thread by @pmdfoster

Some very breathless reporting/reading of @MichelBarnier remarks y'day. So what is happening on #Brexit? Some thoughts on talking with both sides. 1/Thread

@MichelBarnier First Barnier. To be clear, it was absolutely orthodox. We respect UK red lines, but within those limits will give UK broadest ever FTA and Association Agreement. It's EXACTLY what he said on Aug 2 OpEd: "unprecedented in scope and depth." /2

ec.europa.eu/commission/new…

@MichelBarnier So why all the huffing and puffing, the sudden optimism about EU willingness and desire to cut a deal?

Well first, it's important to focus on what that 'deal' is in Oct/Nov - it's the withdrawal agreement.

Money. Citizens. Northern Ireland backstop. NOT Chequers. /2

@MichelBarnier So if we are seeing new optimism, it's about helping UK to get that Withdrawal Agreement over the line - and swallow an Irish backstop.

NOT, from all I hear, about fudging four freedoms and giving the May cherry-picked SM for goods deal she seeks. /3

@MichelBarnier Per one EU source "we've pretty much given up on Chequers" and are focussed on getting the Withdrawal Agreement done.

A very senior UK source (among the few not spinning about EU 'chiefs' going to emasculate Barnier at Salzburg) takes similar view. /4

@MichelBarnier Concedes that the 'game' is to get Withdrawal Agreement done by Oct/Nov, and have a 'Future Framework' full of aspirational fluffy language ("unprecedented in scope" etc) to help it over the line.

So let's interrogate how that's going.... /5

@MichelBarnier The WA text is, both sides say, 80% done, the outstanding issues include things like Geographical Indications, other technical separation issues and...of course, the dreaded Irish Backstop.

The word is that those talks are not going very well. /6

The Brits are holding out on recognising the stock of EU GIs (Parma Ham etc trade designations), Barnier is being 'grumpy' and giving Raab short meetings and the UK side is not engaging on detail of regulatory alignment on the backstop question. /7

The game seems to be to build pressure both at home and in EU capitals, as we move into Nov...Dec...even January to do a fudge on the Irish backstop.

No-one wants a 'no deal', so as crunch looms hope is that both EU chiefs and Tory Brexiteers choose orderly fudge over chaos /8

But here's the problem.

The British vision of future outlined in Chequers (and still being pushed by David Liddington in Paris y'day) as a 'final' offer is still 'cake-n-eat it', three baskets in disguise. The EU side, and not just Commission, seem agreed on this. /9

It let's UK off the hook, and dodges consequence of our decision to leave customs union and single market. We want to remain converged, yet be free to diverge.

So the REAL question facing EU leaders in Salzburg is when/whether to crush that dream. To shoot that unicorn? /10

If there is no real 'cake n eat' it option - only a big FTA as Barnier is promising - is that enough to get the Withdrawal Agreement over the line in the Autumn?

The Brits want the future framework to be substantive, and even have soft legal force... /11

But do they really, if it is clear that the EU is not buying UK offer on high alignment?

Seems to me, the unicorn is already politically dead - if not formally executed yet - which makes the 'smuggle' strategy very hard to sustain. /12

If the dual-tariff fox is shot, then we are back to focussing on the Irish border - and how decision to leave customs union and have invisible north-south border puts customs border in the Irish Sea.

This circle is not squared. /13

The EU could push it into the future transition period by agreeing to an all-UK backstop (perhaps via dual legal routes) but ultimately that just creates a new cliff edge in 2020 as transition period runs out.

At Salzburg EU leaders need to decide if they want clarity or not/14

Mr Barnier is clear. NI-specific backstop, de-dramatized customs border in the Irish Sea, and an ambitious FTA. And no need for a customs border in the Irish if the UK joins some form of customs union.

The Brits are still hunting unicorns. /15

So when it comes Macron, maybe worth reminding ourselves what the man himself said three days ago on respecting UK 'sovereign choice'.

The Barnier plan is completely consistent with that, AND docking UK onto outer circle of Europe. /16

The question, for both sides, is whether that can be achieved if (as Barnier and Macron suggest) the EU holds its line on EU integrity/Four Freedoms.

May/Liddington/Hunt warn rejecting Chequers will lead to chaos etc, so better choose Chequers.

The EU still aint buying. ENDS