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There is a new UN report on the Arctic that claims that even if countries meet Paris targets of limiting global warming to 2C, winter temperatures in the Arctic will still warm by 5 to 9C relative to 1986–2005 levels. This appears to be incorrect. grida.no/publications/4… 1/4 
It is true that if emissions continue on a worst case (RCP8.5) scenario, parts of the Arctic see up to 11C warming relative to preindustrial levels, much higher than the global warming of a bit above 4C. This Arctic amplication is well-understood carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-eve… 2/4
However, if we cut emissions the warming in the region is much less. In a world that limits global warming in-line with Paris targets, warming in the Arctic during the winter is only around 3C above the 1986-2005 period according to climate models: 3/4
Breathless media claims that "devastating Arctic warming is now locked-in" are premature; our actions over the next century will largely determine the extent of future arctic warming. thehill.com/policy/energy-… 4/4
We now have a detailed fact-check up on the subject at @CarbonBrief: carbonbrief.org/factcheck-is-t…
