Constitutional
1.) rewording of motion:given high bar Bercow set earlier= unlikely
2) Prorogation: politicises the Queen. Buckingham Palace will hate it. Takes time/new Queen’s speech and vote which govt might lose=unlikely
(1/3)
Political
4) new concessions from EU= v unlikely
5) PM changes her red lines so deal is different= unlikely
(2/3)
Everything points to long extension.
(3/3)