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A quick answer to a NCAA tournament question I've always wondered: Do first round blowouts matter? Does it mean anything if a #1 seed beats a #16 seed by 40 vs 10?
Turns out, it does, especially if the game is close.
Turns out, it does, especially if the game is close.
Since 1985, #1 seeds that win their first game by 0 to 9 points lose their second game 35% of the time, and have never won a championship. Top seeds that win by 10 or more are actually more likely to win the entire tournament (18%) than they are to lose in the next round (12%).
This trend extends down the bracket. Among #2 through #4 seeds, teams that win by larger margins tend to do better, though the differences are less pronounced (only three of these teams have ever won by 40 or more).
The relationship starts to break down among lower seeds. For #5-#8 seeds, only teams that blow out their first-round opponents are more likely to advance beyond the second round.
And here's #9-#16 seeds.
