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A fun tale about where everyday 'facts' come from. I happened on a widely reported statistic (the number of cruise ships (16) that have sunk in the last 30 years) and thought I would track it back to see if it was real or if it was a zombie. Spoiler: eh, no spoiler. Read on. 1/n
You probably heard about the Norwegian Sky cruise ship that lost engine power in high seas. After 24 harrowing hours, the ship limped into port on Sunday. In the interim, 479(!) people were lifted off the ship’s deck by helicopter, one at a time. 2/n
If you’ve watched even one episode of Deadliest Catch, you’ve seen a helicopter rescue in bad weather, and it’s jaw-droppingly dangerous. 479 rescues defies belief. Surprisingly, only 22 people were injured. Now the question is, how unusual was this event? 3/n
I read about this from NPR and they note at article’s end that while incidents like this are “fairly rare” that between 1980 and 2012, about 16 cruise ships sank. npr.org/2019/03/24/706… 4/n
16 strikes me as quite a lot more than “fairly rare.” It’s rather alarming. So where does this statistic come from? “A 2017 report from the New Zealand government.” OK, let’s check that out. 5/n
The Kiwi report is from their search and rescue (SAR) and it is a forecast of future SAR demand, which might include cruise ship sinkings. They do in fact claim 16 past cruise ship sinkings, but there’s a footnote! nzsar.govt.nz/Portals/4/Publ… 6/n
Footnote 129 identifies the source of this alarming statistic as the New York Times. Turns out, in 2013 the Times was curious how normal cruise ship mishaps are. Still alarmingly, they also note 16 cruise ship sinkings. nytimes.com/2013/05/12/tra… 7/n
The Times notes that “no one is systematically collecting data of …sinking[s]” b/c the cruise industry thinks that if a lot of cruise ships sink, it might be bad for their brand. But wait, the Times has a source! 8/n
Who? A retired professor who cruises (300 days a year!) and has amassed a database of press clippings, which makes him the world’s leading expert (seriously) and testifies before Congress (seriously). Let’s look at his data. 9/n
Here’s his data, cited by NPR, the New York Times, and the government of New Zealand: cruisejunkie.com/Sunk.html 10/n
As you can see, virtually all of the nautical disasters listed here are 1) unsourced and 2) not cruise ships. They are ferries, yachts, expeditions, river boats, tenders, etc. but not what you think of when you hear “buffet at sea” and “overpriced excursion.” 11/n
In fact, I can only identify three in 20 years. The Costa Concordia off Tuscany in 2012, the MS Sea Diamond off Santorini (w/no one left aboard) in 2007 and the Sun Spirit in 1999 (w/no one left aboard). 12/n
Going back 10 more years, there was the Estonia (which was more of a ferry) in 1994, the Achille Lauro in 1994 and the Royal Pacific in 1992. The Achille Lauro was built in the 1930s and the Royal Pacific in 1964. 13/n
So, that is maybe 6, and that’s still pretty misleading. It’s a zombie statistic. I’m not arguing that cruise ships are awesome and never, ever sink, just that you can’t convict them on this evidence (this subtweet is intentional). 14/n
Please don’t take this as an indictment of the news media or evidence of 'fake news'. That’s nonsense. Just noting that zombie statistics are all around us and to kill them, you need to destroy their brains. Cheers. FIN.
